Thursday, August 25, 2016

My Tesla Model ☰ Price - Optimistic / Pessimistic

I'm a long way from the car of my dreams. Still it's time to start saving and that means I need a price for my dream ( and last ) car.

So SWAG ( Scientific Wild Ass Guess) time.

Base               -  $35000   ( As promoted )
Dual Motor    -  $05000   ( No discount - assume motors most costly upgrade )
Autopilot       -  $03000   ( No discount - similar upgrade to S )
Supercharge  -  $01000   ( Guess to register SC pay as you go )
ColdWeather -  $01000   ( Similar to S )

Dest & Doc   -  $01000   (20% off S guess)
PA Tax              $02760
PA Title Tags    $00200
Less Fed Incent $07500
Less PA Incent   $02000
Less Deposit       $01000
Optimistic price  $38500
Opt cash needed $46000
Pessimistic price $48000
Pesm. cash needed $48000

My pricing is based on guesses based on S options.  While Elon says ☰  options will be lower I'm assuming that's for options that require less - less paint, less carpet etc. I also SWAG that there will be two kinds of Supercharger options. One to register for access to pay as you go charging at fairly gas like rates ( this guess I'm costing out above ) and a 'free like the S and X option' at possibly 3-4 grand. Given the connectivity of Tesla cars I think this makes sense. The Model ☰ analysts on the net tend to disagree but I actually think this model is the most logical - a hook up my service type fee with a by charge per KWH cost would allow for trips at a more expensive rate and the predominant charging at home or destination for low or no rates. This keeps the more common ☰ owners from camping on SC units but gives them freedom to travel too. Finally for must have ☰  owners a 'high' option would give them full free access for car life but take money up front to not only activate the SC network but build it out as well to keep S/X owners happy.

My Optimistic option assumes Elon's plan to maximize the credits work. My pessimistic plan assumes neither credit survives by my delivery date.

I live on top of a (West Coast) hill (East Coast) mountain at 1200 ft - so all wheel drive and the cold weather package is important to me. Autopilot also a must for this ranged electric vehicle.

The rest is not so critical.  Since 215 is Tesla's ☰  range estimate and dual motor extends that by 10 in the S let's guess 220 range with the ☰  55KWH. DC is about 100 miles, Baltimore less. SC nearby in Hagerstown and in DC/Baltimore.  This covers my regional travel even in the cold.  Add a chademo adapter and add Frederick to charging sites.

As for more speed - I'm a retiree. I've never owned a less than 9 sec 0-60 car. Non performance dual motor improves an S by .3 secs let's assume the same for a TM☰ . That is 0-60 in 5.7 seconds - if the specs don't improve. That will be the most amazing car I've ever owned bar none, including my present LEAF purchased for $40K full freight - waiting in line for Nissan at the end of 2011.

So 220m range (or better)
5.7 sec 0-60
AWD and All Wheel Regen.
Autopilot on highway.
Standard options elsewhere.

Optimistically a little less money than my Leaf was... 0-60 on a Leaf is 9.9 seconds and it is not nearly as pretty. I'm also guessing an interior that will really be different - the S has always reminded me of Star Trek - grin. Finally AWD with computer traction and the fast power/braking response of electric motor/regen. The low center of gravity of the battery sled.  The S has also been a little large for my taste - 20% smaller is great and yet comfortable seating for 4-5 adults.

Powered at my home by wind power now and eventually solar if and when I can pony up the funds.

I believe when this car hits the hands of the critics the stock is going to go into the sky. Yes I do own stock in Tesla as I've revealed before.

Elon's companies have repeatedly learned from issues to go from failure to homeruns. SpaceX and Tesla are succeeding in highly technical fields where no new companies have been founded in years. I believe in the 4th gen Tesla car - Roadster, Model S, Model X, and now the Model ☰. It will be the most economically produced Tesla ever. It's baseline of road data from Model S and Model X cars the world over will be, bar none, the most advanced road navigation ever seen. All the advantages of other electrics combined with greatest economy of scale battery production ever.

As it is today.  Mercedes Benz at a 1/4 million dollar vehicle is no where close.

2017-mercedes-benz-e-class vs 2017-tesla-model-s
Car & Driver Semi-autonomous cars compared

I was about 48th in line at the Tesla showroom in Bethesda MD. Crossing my fingers for delivery timing and incentives. No matter what - late, no incentives, regardless I'm saving now!

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