A Charged Up Year - So how about you?

A small ten posts for this year. I did do the National Drive Electric Week.

Why do I become complacent on blogging when I'm having the best drives of my life.  Whether Coast to Coast or family visits Circe the Tesla Model 3 LR RWD has performed quite well. True self driving seems no closer than the beginning of the year but I can be patient.  If any one issue bugged me it was going through my tires at only 39K miles.

However it's hard to blame the car when I love the accelerating.  I generally stay with the speed limit but I do like to get to it smartly.  Add 4000 lbs of vehicle and D G, and we are talking tires wearing quickly.  I was feeling that - especially in rain and snow so at the 20 month mark it's 4 new tires and they are great again.  I had hoped to get to 2 years and at least 40K miles. Maybe this will motivate me to cut back on the jackrabbiting. Still, The Tesla Model 3 continues to be the most efficient electric on the road.

A quick fast charging pic as I have no new Circe exterior pics. This was in Kill Devil Hills NC USA.

Very Fast and not even version 3

So what is stopping you my friend?  This car in a base 240 mile model with an electric drivetrain that protects us from climate change and carbon emissions is about $40K.  Do you really prefer an ICE engine that is pretty and smooth now but a smokey monster in 5 or 6 years?  I'm amazed every time I read or hear someone proudly announce they bought another gas monster.

Please in the coming year think before you leap - your decisions add up to a world our kids do or don't survive.

  

 

National Drive Electric Week 2019 NDEW

So I had the fun of helping with two NDEW events.  The Frederick Mom's Organic was the smallest and for me the most enjoyable.

Mom's Organic

This event had about 15 electrics - two blue TM3's including Circe. People were walk ups - some aware of electrics some not.  I'd still say we probably outnumbered the people new to electrics but it was nice giving us time to talk to the interested and pass out handouts on all the electrics available - courtesy EVA/DC.

Poolsville MD is the biggest EV gathering in the area and fun in a big event kind of way. My favorite part was the MD/VOLT EV ferry ride to the event. It's a $5 one way ferry trip but scenic and fun.  Poolsville itself is really a city parade and fair - Electric Vehicles are kind of a sideshow but a big one. Not as many new people to discuss electrics with as many stay down at the fair food trucks area. Still worth coming and representing.  Here's a little ferry boat picture.

Overall definitely worth the time - especially for people with questions about electric cars. This group also tends to be knowledgeable on solar power for the home as well. Probably more discussion with my fellow electric fans than new people but that's fun too.

I'm wondering if it might be worth my time to get together an electric event up here in PA.  Maybe in Gettysburg or Waynesboro next year if I can drum up some interest.

No News equals Good News?

I like having something to blog about but really my Tesla Model 3 has been too reliable.  After the Coast to Coast trip the car has been down to Nags Head and up to Boston.  As usual the car was flawless.  In the New England trip I was able to drive from the Southern PA border near Hagerstown MD up to the Darien CT supercharger in one reach - most of the miles at 75mph.  The autopilot and Traffic Aware Cruise Control (TACC) were excellent. I really only use Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) while traffic is light. I often find the auto passing on NOA a little aggressive for my taste when traffic is busy. TACC however I use constantly.  It slows down when traffic down but keeps me close enough to the speed limit to avoid tickets. Autopilot depends on the situation but I keep it on more than 2/3rds of the travel.

So the biggest point is I have plenty of travel but no special issues. Tesla has day to day news - but it's covered elsewhere.  I can tell friends and family how inexpensive operating the Model 3 is - about a third or less the cost of gas. Still the upfront cost - a minimum of $40K and fear of the difference seems to put buyers off.  The Model 3 is selling in record numbers for an electric but still most buyers despite having children buy polluting gas cars and years of future carbon emissions.

As always - I keep letting people know the Model 3 is a better, faster, safer, and long term cheaper. It's all I can do. So I may not blog as much as I should. Hope the Model Y and a truck will help in the long run.

Fanboys

A Fanboy in the Wild.

Yeah that's me. Not pretty. Sincere though. I have two grown sons who I worry for.

Social Media Clowning for Fun and No Profit.

A Car centric social media group leader, Russell Frost, that I respect has a weekly cast about Tesla and one about the future of transport technology.  The Tesla Life and What Drives Us. I am a 'fan' and I enjoy hanging out on the chat windows for both shows. I freely admit to being too sophomoric given the whole group of commenters and chat folk.  With a beer in hand I am probably not nearly as funny as I think am.   If I was trying to be fair I'd put myself in the Tesla fan category and Russell in the critic side.  I like to think we both have valid points and can at least wear the other side's shoes.

This is the kind of back and forth and discussion I like. Where both sides can laugh at themselves and see honest points that they would not have made.

The negative sides of my hard core Fanboys.

So before we jump into downside of climate change deniers let's state the obvious. Being blind to examining the whole of issues and bullying the other side is a hard core mistake on the eco side.  Even those of us trying to be fair and self examining will stray into this - I have jumped in people's manure because I felt they were pushing the TSLAQ agenda.  This agenda in stock lingo is to push Tesla to bankruptcy.  Even with this threat to a leader in sustainability there is not room for troll behavior.  The bullying is out there too.  Just because one self identifies as part of this 'eco' tribe we feel righteous about, regardless of positives, we need to look at ourselves and our motivating ideas every day.  Find the flaws and issues in our own commandments and plans for action.  Without critique or self examination though how do we get to improvement?  Improvement in this movement really needs to happen for the whole world to work on population growth, climate change, sustainable energy and materials, and an secure home for Earth's life.

So a next big negative is not appreciating other voices, organizations,  and car makers are part of a big system we need for sustainable life on Earth.  Tesla alone winning in a zero sum game that probably results in so much waste that the overall goal is never achieved.  If as a fanboy you can't at least examine other EV car makers and sustainable industries with hope and a genuine desire for success then our side has a real problem.  Somehow BOYS, we have to remain open and listening in a world that disparages ecological motives, add and respect women's voices on our side, and not adopt the worst 'shout them down' behavior we see elsewhere.  

So a self exam is in order.  Another big point is a leading company like Tesla can't have a self exam unless it is open in problem areas such as employee treatment and warranty support for customers.  Similarly we the fans have to self examine what is positive in our social media interaction and what just feeds the trolls. What distinguishes a troll vs a critic with a point?

One area I think critics have valid points on is Tesla employee treatment.  My best guess is that voices on this have enough smoke that there is some real fire. Conversely I think the troll and UAW special interests blow up the scale of these issues - we have discussed this in earlier blogs here.  I don't think it can be denied that Tesla is amateurish is handling employee morale, hiring, and layoffs. The question is how does this improve without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

However there are Bears in these woods.

I don't just mean stock players trying depress the TSLA price in a short strategy.  We have established industries, like oil/coal, directly financing lobbies with social media teams pressing anti Tesla memes and trolling.  Employees hurt by disruptive Tesla in their old line functions such as ICE car makers and dealership owners. Engine, emission, and transmission repair shops and workers.   

Media too is none too thrilled with the Tesla 'no ads' system. I see articles that range from fawning praise to nonsensical 'death watch' pieces. If you are writing the latter, I really don't think you can cry too loudly as in a Python skit 'Help, Help I'm being repressed!'.  While I encourage civility and calm retort, I'll be honest - I hope someday those leading us down a path to a ravaged Earth are one day called to account. 

 The Alligators are real in this swamp:

                                       

Credit where credit is due.

So my retirement is in indexed funds. I also have a little Roth account for play though and instead of being in something sensible it's in Tesla.  Long.  Just for the mission.  TSLAQ can depress the price, I'll be long and support Tesla's current governance as long as they adhere to the mission.  I do hope for better employee conditions, more realistic time frames on goals, and less 'monkey business' in the news.  I have Tesla Solar panels and a Powerwall working in a very nice system for my cottage charging my car - a Tesla Model 3.  I didn't start here.  I worked for NOAA and became aware of atmospheric carbon levels 20 years ago.  I tried the Honda Civic hybrid, the Nissan Leaf and the Think City.  None was enough of an improvement to really sell electrics to my mainstream friends.  Musk may not be a saint or a genius, but he is smart enough to be leading and growing a company dedicated to attractive sustainable solutions for our planet's future.  I can put up with some ego if that mission continues.

This is also why even though I want Tesla to improve employee relations I would oppose having that done at the expense of the mission. Thus far Tesla has been the only car maker a no compromise electric car at near to what I could afford.  I credit Nissan and GM for making a lukewarm entry with decent cars.  Tesla is the primary one pushing everyone.  I believe VW, Audi, Jaguar, Porsche, BMW, and the others are sincere but not fully committed.  Maybe Rivian, maybe Hyundai.  Until we get full in players I support the leader in electrification and hope for more leaders.  

                                                                          

Finally a note on incentives.

I'm retired - I have no regular payments from anyone to say anything.  For recommending Tesla's to car buyers I have received 2 Tesla charge cables ($500 each. One given to a friend and one to my son), early OTA updates (that usually aren't that early), a party invite (Model Y party, paid for my own transport and hotel - kinda dull actually), and eventually one week's rental of a Model X (given to my other non-tesla son to get him considering a Tesla car).  These 5 incentives were in return for 6 Tesla car sale referrals.  Tesla gave me nada for the sixth referral which didn't trouble me at all.  I'm fine with these incentives to be honest I see no way they would sway my opinions - good and bad of the Tesla brand and technology. Anyone needing a referral just ask in the comments section - I have no issues doing so and it gets the car buyer and myself some free supercharging miles.  Enjoy!

C2C - Supercharging on a Distance Trip.

The only way to really understand the size of the USA is to drive. Even after a Coast to Coast and back trip I'm not really there - after all Alaska would probably double such a trip.

Still to review:

6370 Miles + 440 Mile Wilmington NC leg = 6810 miles sea to sea and back home.

Now considering the 300 miles were off the home charger, that meant 6,500 miles were Supercharged at 45 SC stops across the country. Sometimes my planning worked well - other times not so much.  April was still cold over much of the country so often I would be force to add a final SC stop knowing the battery would be cold overnight and wake up considerably lower than I stopped with.

This could be the reason 151.4 = 6810 / 45 stops.  Given I had two 120 plugins - one KOA and Texas, plus a 240 charge worth 80 miles or so I'd say we can call this 150 miles average. I think that's because I often choose to make two 15 min stops topping around 55-60% rather than a single full charge taking 55-1 Hr 10 minutes.

The final part of the charging puzzle I just couldn't find on the fly. Destination charging. This would have been a big help. When you pull out the driveway at 300miles+ in the battery it really opens up the options and cuts back on the extra SC stops. One medium 45 minute stop places you at 500 miles for the day and then another Destination Charger means you can do it all again. Planning with a Better Route Planner or staying at different places would have helped here.

I was also pushing hard on daily distance on my starting days to cut cost.  If I had a little extra cash I might not have done that - saving wear and tear on my sixty year old self.  My first return day started at 8:30am and ended at 11pm.  Admittedly part of this was because of large sections of road that were 30-40 mph for whole morning. I picked a beautiful mountain and lake route but it cost in time.

So while SC fueling is not more convenient than gas it's getting close. With Destination Charging at hotels it could be about the same.  Day to day though with a home charger it beats gas hands down as normally one never stops with 300 miles of range any morning you wake up.

Happy EV motoring!

                                                

C2C - Vacation objectives

The view from the vacation EV office - not too shabby.

So first I wanted to first hold the vacation costs to about $2,000.  Normally I'd consider more but as a Tesla Model 3 owner still paying off his car and retiree I had to go modest.  Next I wanted to do an EV Coast to Coast trip to showcase the Model 3 as practical option to tour cross country with Tesla's very good Super Charger network.

Next since I had three cheap nights reserved at the Elara in Vegas for $200 (timeshare pitch), I wanted to see a couple shows - I picked Penn & Teller because I'm a fan and there are some illusions they only do in Vegas and the 'Love' cirque show because - well I'm an old guy who likes the Beatles. The Elara gave me a really nice suite with great views so that was a luxury highlight.

On the EV (Electric Vehicle) side I wanted to go to the Tesla Fremont factory where my car was assembled. Any Tesla owner can reserve this tour once a year and bring three guests. I was traveling alone as that is my situation but this tour costs nothing at present and would be great with a group.

Next I wanted to drive the Tesla on PCH (Pacific Coast Highway 1). That objective would be accomplished and more, as you have seen in the articles photograph and more to come.

Another objective: I hoped to drop in on friends along the way - which worked in one case and made my Texas stay a lot of fun. More would have been great but Texas was awesome.

Finally - Could I actually car camp to keep expenses down? This was mixed for me so we will cover it in depth but the short version is it can work. How about the mount of driving required?

Next C2C blog entry tomorrow, first another view from the office

Coast to Coast and back again.

Bought a 3 night stay in Las Vegas by Hilton as part of their points promotions for $200. Yep it was a timeshare deal so I had to endure a pitch but I can do that without biting standing on my head - and did.  My preference was to fly but then I thought - The Big Roadtrip. If any car could do this well I believed it would be Circe the Tesla Model 3. Add that I had just come back from Wilmington NC so I could call it Coast to Coast ( return just to Blue Ridge Summit, PA ) out and almost that back.  I emailed Tesla for an appointment for the factory and got one for Earth Day April 22. This tour of EV Willy Wonkaland is not to be missed and would be another great excuse for Road Tripping.

Let's give you the Cliff Notes version and then I'll spend some May blog entries going into the trip in detail.

Travel days out (5.5):
2019 APR 2nd Wilmington -> My home in Blue Ridge Summit
2019 APR 14/15 Home -> Plano TX
2019 APR 17/18 TX -> Vegas
2019 APR 21 Vegas -> San Francisco/Fremont CA

Travel days back (5)
2019 APR 24-28

Accomodations:
2 Car Camp (Glamp?) days at KOAs total about $95 with membership.
2 Hampton Inn stays on points.
3 Hampton Inn stays avg $130 with taxes etc - total $400
3 Nights at the Elara for $200
2 Nights with friends in Plano TX

Mileage total 6,810

Fuel - aka 45 SuperCharging stops totalling $357.58

Cost per mile with Super Charging = 5.25 cents a mile electric cost.

While this is higher than my rate at home ( when using the grid vs my solar ) of 3 cents a mile I figure it still beats the pants off gas at 10+ cents a mile ($3 gal / 30mph)  + whatever costs one attributes to roasting your grandkids.

That's the overview, I'll add some articles in May in depth. Happy (Electric) Motoring.

My experience at the Model Y Debutante party

Tesla introduced their new Model Y.  It's a slick Crossover - I wouldn't call it a full SUV in size. About 3" to  6" inches taller than a Model 3 and a hatchback so 66 cu ft of space.  Even more of a glass roof (longer back all the way to the liftback) which is beautiful.  Coefficient of Drag 0.23.

Please consider my referral code if you want to buy any Tesla. If you use it we both 400 kwh of free Supercharging. http://ts.la/david901

Basically the Model 3 sled and electronics for reliability . Very pretty. Here's a pic I took of the Model Y white mule:

Now for me the show was more exciting to check out the Roadster Version 2:

I can't afford but it sure is super pretty.  No rides for anything but the Model Y.  Kimball Musk, my cousin's sustainable vegan hero of local grown veggies was there and kindly allowed a selfie:

A fun party indeed but I was too tired to outwait the press and others for a Tesla Y test drives. (which can be seen on youtube) I did however get a Starman selfie as well;

I still enjoyed the trip greatly and will have more to come. Let's end this with me near the giant supercharger obolith:

                                                                                                                   

EV Batteries and the World's Smallest Violin

Warning - I'm taking these numbers from an Electrek article and they seem an order of magnitude high compared to Jack Ricard.  I tend to trust Ricard so I'm looking for issues with my math -be forewarned!

28,000 Tons - That's your lithium needs at Tesla's (Gigafactory) GF 1 in Sparks Nevada if they get to full blast production. This allows them to produce their target of 35 GWH of battery storage a year.  So each Gigawatt hour of storage requires 800 tons of Lithium hydroxide if Electrek is on target.

Reference 1:
Electrek.co Tesla-lithium-supply-agreement-china-producer-batteries

( Electrek quote: "If Gigafactory 1 reaches its goal of 35 GWh of battery cell production by the end of the year, it is estimated to need about 28,000 tons of lithium hydroxide per year."  This is sourced from Bloomberg - quote "Tesla may need as much as 28,000 tons of lithium hydroxide a year from late next year based on battery output at its Nevada facility reaching the equivalent of 35 gigawatt hours, according to Benchmark Mineral’s forecasts. " )

Note the way the quotes above inflate so again a warning that my estimates using it looks high. 

This last year 2018 GF1 produced 1.1 GWH of Powerpack and Powerwall storage. Tesla Fremont produced 245,240 (Electric Vehicles) EV's in 2018. So we can extrapolate GF1 car GWH by 245240 x 75kwh = 18.4 GWH or 19.5 GWH with energy products. So estimate GF1 is for 2018 running at 56 percent of their possible production. Again a round estimate at total car lithium is 18.4 x 800 tons = 14,720 tons of lithium in Tesla 2018 EVs.

As usual the bloviating paid for shills of oil are spinning this as environmentally worse than their smoking clanking infernal combustion machine production and oil to gasoline production costs.

Let's go with a back of the envelope calculation:

35,000,000,000 / 75+ KWH = 450,000 Model 3's at full blast if the Model 3 continues to sell.  So basically all Fremont could handle. Sounds ballpark. For now let's work with 2018's production of 245,240 EV cars at 18.4GWH of Gigafactory 1 output requiring 14,720 tons of Lithium hydroxide.

Each US ton would .63 cubic meters and 14,720 tons stores in 9273.6 cubic meters - about 100' by 150' by 20' high warehouse room would store that. Two rooms for the GF1 at full blast to store a years worth of lithium hydroxide for electrolyte. About 200 tractor trailer loads a year - less than 2% of what a big container ship delivers. So when a you think of the Lithium Hydroxide in your battery on a TM3 be thankful for a 60 lb cube of the stuff 11 inches on a side that has been mixed with liquid to become electrolyte for 4416 individual battery cylinder cells.

Don't believe the hype that this is worse than say the rare earths in the multiple catalytic converters that a gas car requires over it's life.  My Honda Civic at 180,000 miles took 2 replacements at $1300 each for a total of three during it's ten years of service with me.

14,720 x @$20,500 per ton = $302,000,000 in EV Lithium hydroxide cost a year or $1230 a 75kwh car.
https://www.globalxfunds.com/benchmark-what-drove-lithium-prices-in-december/

But wait that's 60 lbs of Lithium hydroxide - didn't we previously estimate Li content at tops 20 lbs for the Model 3's 75kwh 1050 lb battery sled?  Remember anhydrous Lithium Hydroxide is three times the weight per mole of straight lithium - or about three times the weight for similar volume.  So maybe our Li element weight is still ballpark if high. Remember also Elon's projection of $100 per kwh for raw batteries this year?  So your sled in the Tesla Model 3 is basically the world's finest $10K magic carpet - $7500 batteries and $2500 (SWAG) in the integrated penthouse electronics.

Again - trying to see if our estimate continue to stay in the ballpark - Jack Rickard mentions an eyedropper full of electrolyte is all that's needed in a 2170 individual battery cell. That's about a half a milliliter in a standard prescription bottle. He mentions the electrolyte liquid is ethylene carbonate.  So a guess would be 1 ml x 2208 = 2.2 liters per pack.  2.2 liters seems too low volumn to be the solvent of the electrolyte so I continue to find the numbers for Lithium Hydroxide high.

I'm going to continue to recheck and resource these numbers - as the lithium amounts and costs compared to Jack (a serious battery expert) seem high. Please feel free to comment on any errors you see. For the moment it's an upper bound as we look for better numbers.

Jack Rickards Latest in Depth Discussion of the Model 3 battery pack:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nhQw7iGukE

New Year and a New Tesla Model 3 owner

My son graduates in the spring with a four year degree in the arts and plenty of cinematography under his belt. 

We wanted a present that would be both practical and amazing. So I pitched the base mid-range Tesla Model 3 to the ex with a cost split - a third apiece.  We did that with the Think and it worked well and was paid off on a four year loan in his high school and part of college.  The Think however, was not getting used for the last two years due a longer student commute. Plue his ICE clunker had an engine light on and the fed tax rebate was dropping away for good.

So add Xmas to the mix and here we are:

 

It should be noted an EV car costs about a third to operate vs gas - with the exception of tires.  He'll go through a set every two years so I'm guessing put aside $400 a year plus $100 for the LTE streaming service after the first year. The idea being one third of a 40K car 5 year loan = $250 payments for him with mom and Dad taking each a third over five years. A deal a kid waiting tables or working tech support while looking for that good film job could swing, with a little thriftiness. With electric costing $400 a year vs $1600 in gas that alone is like a young man's $200 a month car but reliable, electric, and clean, with enough cargo space for small moves. He has no student loans.

We took basic black aero wheels mid range (260 mile), no automation software - 47,200 delivered.  Maryland tax paid upfront and $7500 gifted from me up here in PA strings free. That gets the Mom & grad pair down in MD to the 40K loan plus the eventual fed rebate and possibly MD excise tax refunded. My third of the loan payments I simply account for as a gift to them of $3000 a year well inside Federal gift limits as was the $7500 in 2018. When the car is paid off Mom simply transfers it fully to son, MD is reasonable about parent title transfers.

Yeah it is over the top. This is the kid however who has made good grades, worked every summer and often works during school so as to not have to ask for much. He's the first to get a four year degree. My older very successful son has a solid 2 year AA degree and a fantastic job. Very proud of him as well. Still this four year degree is big deal to me. I never accomplished that...

The second part of why is Kevin has been with me to countless EV shows - just because he was interested in EV's and how they could reduce the carbon footprint and climate change. He showed people his Think and my Leaf at several DC Auto shows, EVA/DC and MD Volt meetups.  He paid for his Think and used it right up to an curbing that put it out of operation just as his driving needs became longer range.  He has solidly helped the EV cause and rather than struggling with check engine lights and oily repairs going nowhere this is a last present to help boost him into orbit as an adult.

Good luck son.  We all are going to need it but at least you will have some fun on the way.

Love Dad