Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Tesla and Model ☰ Updates

Man... Tesla moves fast.

A month ago I published a few electric car notes and promised a Tesla only entry. Talk about a lot happening in a month - Tesla has been a roller coaster.

With the election behind us we've seen a real flip in direction. Sadly the GOP has not figured out that climate protection is in their long term interest. The Koch brothers future looks like their millions poured into policy fronts against electric vehicles may pay off.  (Hoping not.)

Already Tesla may be looking at a firm end to the federal $7500 credit rebate. Worse, I would not be surprised if the limit was not only enforced but the US government with all three branches controlled by the GOP might change or rollback the rules. At the time the rules were made to allow a tapering down system of credits that Tesla could play via increased production speed. This would have allowed them to reward most or all of the 400,000+ in line with at least partial credit (see my earlier post on this). Now all bets are off on the incentive although it would expose the forces of FUD to some bright light if they change the rules.

Still I believe the average Model ☰ reservation holder is in it for the car - incentives or not. Because incentive rebates are granted after the car is bought all of us were going to pony up full price anyway at the time of the deal. I have a revised estimate for my ☰ as well.

Before I go on I'd like to add a link to a site that I believe gives you a great overview of all things Model ☰ and Tesla. Trevor and his associates have just done a bang up job.

Youtube Videos for Tesla Model 3

As well as their website:

Model 3 Owners Club

I give you the youtube site first because it's so easy to access their information that way. A couple of their first videos had sound issues but very quickly they put those to bed. The content is magnificent and easy to digest. If you want not only all the known data on the Model ☰ but the best deductions for what is coming watch this channel. These Canadians are on the ball, eh?

Autopilot and Self Driving.

Tesla and Mobileye ( former Autopilot system OEM) had a falling out. Each has tried to spin it their way but the upshot is a temporary setback to an autopilot that had been winning the review war with Mercedes and Lexus. Tesla again nimbly is turning this into a big win for a WAY improved system. Hopping to Nvidia seemingly overnight we have seen a tremendous leap in both the vehicle sensors and a quantum leap in computing power. Nvidia's watercooled PX system is added to the already high tech car. A system with high redundancy, tremendous CPU horsepower, and serious neural network capability. Compared in horsepower to 140 Macbook Pros this CPU is something new:

Nvidia Px2 Analysis

Want to learn more? I suggest the videos on Tesla's site. Remember we are looking at a hardware system on every new Tesla that can deliver three modes each with strong benefits. For Free - Safety Mode - Collision alarms and auto dimming headlights. Actually not a bad deal as you can upgrade. Autopilot mode $5000 at purchase / $6000 enabled later. An enhanced autopilot that can lane keep and function on all levels of road but still requires driver supervision and direction. Last full self driving. $3000 at purchase / $4000 after. Subject to regulatory approval. To appreciate this go to Tesla's website and run their videos of where this capability is shown working today! Both videos have Tesla deliver a rider not touching the controls over all kinds of traffic situations, drop off the rider and autopark. This will require regulatory approval with a timeframe that is anyone's guess but is much farther along past what we assumed. Amazing.


A new model for SC ( Supercharging ) is here. While destination (slower) charging is pretty much unchanged, SC will no longer be unlimited for Tesla's configured and ordered after December 2016. Instead Tesla's will be credited a free 400 KWH a year and pay per KWH (KiloWatt Hour) after that allowance. Think of it like 3-4 tank fill ups for free long distance travel. This is a wise move. Home charging - which is about 3 cents a mile should be the native mode of all Tesla's. This frees SC to serve the traveller in need and expand the network with recharge profits. So I no longer envision an purchase option for Super Charging on the Model ☰.

My new upgraded estimate - still high siding with maybe a grand off autopilot for early adopters:

Base               -  $35000   ( As promoted )
Dual Motor    -  $05000   ( No discount - assume motors most costly upgrade )
Autopilot       -  $04000   ( 1K discount for we early line standing folk? )
Supercharge  -  $0    ( SC 400kwh yearly then pay as you go )
ColdWeather -  $01000   ( Similar to S )

Dest & Doc   -  $01000   (20% off S guess)
PA Tax              $02760
PA Title Tags    $00200
Less Fed Incent $07500
Less PA Incent   $02000
Less Deposit       $01000
Optimistic price  $38500
Opt cash needed $46000
Pessimistic price $48000
Pesm. cash needed $48000

Ok there is no real difference but I may be $1K optimistic. As before I am undeterred regardless.

Tesla Stock continues to be shorted in record amounts and the faithful continue to buy the dips. The market remains skeptical of the Solar City merger we approved - at least that is the excuse. I think the proven innovation that continues everyday, Tesla's new profitability, pack leading autopilot, increasing by magnitude production numbers, and guaranteed interest measured in 400,000 $1K reservations will crack the shorts like eggshells. I look forward to an omelette whipped up from their tears and lost fortunes.

Comments (reasonably polite please) welcome.