tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-48615496686944432172024-03-13T20:31:06.774-07:00Electric DetectivesSolving the issues of Electric Vehicles together one at a time.D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.comBlogger107125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-72805765284949145072022-05-26T17:39:00.002-07:002022-05-26T17:39:27.721-07:00Striking with the hot iron!Kevin's L3mr RWD was a pretty good deal. It caught the last of the Fed Tesla rebates and the Maryland tax rebate so it was $39,700 delivered. He later added the $5000 desparate Elon end of the month before Tesla stock took off deal for FSD. Somehow his also had basic autopilot in the base price so was all in through FSD for a total price of $44,700 taxes and tags icluded. Now I paid $9000 for the same autopilot and today one pays $12,000. Edmunds currently lists a used 2019 L3MR at $45K and doesn't mention FSD so we did all right. The only minus is he pays $100 a year for connectivity and of course Supercharging isn't free. However the mobile charger was thrown in and with the different plug heads he is good with various home charging setups. This model also had the primo sound and adjustable heated seats. Today new a RWD Model 3 with FSD is $60K with no rebate. Sometimes it pays to strike while the iron is hot. With a set of black Tesla roof racks (gift from Dad) and window tinting (gift from brother) so it looks pretty badass. Very little maintenance and it is not yet out of warrenty. One of our best family car deals ever.
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D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-23549671588204439512022-03-15T11:50:00.000-07:002022-03-15T11:50:14.719-07:00Sadly stuck but still over the moon on my EV.As I mentioned before the need for 4 wheel capability where I winter has forced an ICE car on me. My EV in PA is still the best with minimal issues - tires. inspection & insurance are most of it. I'm out of warranty so the one issue - is the flap door for the charger which I push closed manually. I've heard Tesla comes in at over $250 for this fix so I'm stalling. I also need to replace my 12 volt battery - not because it's out but at 4 years it's a timebomb so....
My main gripe is the up and down the Coast and gas use at my place in the sand. The CyberTruck is the answer but seems further and further away. Elon has decided Tesla can take it's time for we reservation holders while he pumps out the 3 and the Y. Understandable, building his versions of the VW Beetle and taking over the EV world. It does however try ones commitment to electric given every month I wait is more cash to the oil companies.
Of course inflation is also a reason why waiting for the Cybertruck is plenty frightening.
1st World Problems, eh?
I so miss Circe.D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-34256878515940084402022-01-21T16:44:00.002-08:002022-01-21T16:44:33.955-08:00Lectured again by non owners on battery lifeSo lets break it down. First my original 2012 Nissan Leaf battery was only really useful for 6 years - luckily Tesla came along. That Leaf started with 85 and in 5 years was basically 40 in range. So yes pick the wrong chemistry and you may have a short lived car. I really want at least 10 years out of a car - especially at todays costs.
First my Model 3 warranty vs my observed performance. 8 years or 120,000 miles on the Model 3 long range to still perform with 70% battery function. I have 52,426 miles at about 46 months - two months shy of the halfway period of the eight year warranty. My car was originally chargable to 310 miles. Somewhere around 2020 Tesla unlocked a little more - 315 on new cars although mine went to about 312 as the two year mark of ownership arrived. Here at almost 4 years I'm seeing almost 3% cumulative down or 9 miles off the 315 new mark - I can charge to 306 miles. So yearly about 3/4ths of a percent degradation a year (A little less if I properly did out the math but it will do).
Now Tesla's warranty is about 3.75% a year degradation of less. Ben Sullin's Teslanomics had a bunch of stats showing across many Tesla owners the highest amounts of battery loss were in the early years and tended to plateau after so I'm guessing this rate of loss mat very good news for my car.
Basically at 63, my car will almost certainly outlast me even in my 90's. Even at 75% - 235 miles of range at my age 100 and the cars age of 37, it will make a fine robofleet car as it has FSD. Then it can earn enough in my portion of the fares to buy a better flying Tesla if I'm still around.
Luckily the plebes can't see me roll my eyes when they moaning 'but the batteries!'. For Nickola's sake talk to a Tesla EV owner.
D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-50028119947146871612021-09-02T17:07:00.000-07:002021-09-02T17:07:09.275-07:00A dark side: For a year I've had an ICENo Pictures. This entry is a depressing confession. A year ago I acquired with my son a vacation home at the beach. In an area inaccessable to anything less than a four wheel drive with good clearence. While it is rented half the year and I can drive my Tesla, when I go down to maintain and visit it I have no choice but 4 wheel drive.
Gas use again - ugh.
I have a Cybertruck reservation but Elon is not famous for getting new vehicles out the door early. I am acutely aware of how every gallon of gas I buy is making climate worse. I absolutely use the used Forester 4x4 for nothing but that specific drive, but that is still making me deeply unhappy.
I also worry with inflation Tesla is going to add bogus options to jump the price from the agreed on reservation price. I really can't afford a much higher price - even with saving and hopefully trading in the Forrester as well.
Let's hope next year (2022) the Tesla Cybertruck rolls out on time and on budget.
More on the CT soon.
D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-66071295379178447252021-08-25T02:58:00.001-07:002021-08-25T02:58:26.016-07:00So Wither 2020 - Has Tesla spoiled me for blogging?<p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9Fty2fgIvYA/YSYBr186xfI/AAAAAAAAHmM/qxge-qMoP9McEMA_PNEkKlAso0gc_MJOgCLcBGAsYHQ/s2048/CirceAt3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="333" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9Fty2fgIvYA/YSYBr186xfI/AAAAAAAAHmM/qxge-qMoP9McEMA_PNEkKlAso0gc_MJOgCLcBGAsYHQ/w444-h333/CirceAt3.jpg" width="444" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Circe at three years.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /> </p><p>So you can tell Electric Vehicles have arrived when you miss an entire year+ of blogging. I've had some health challenges and yet that isn't it. It's that between COVID ( which cancelled a lot of EV shows ) and my car being so effortless to drive, I really have felt less like a hobbyist. Yet I still see people every day wanting to either learn about EVs or telling me why they don't work. LOL.</p><p>Circe the LRM3 (Long Range Model 3) has worked well with 50K miles and 3+ years. No breakdowns other than a tire eaten by a PA highway pothole. Trips to San Francisco and back; Cape Cod, MA; Outer Banks, NC (OBX); Niagara Falls / Canada, and Boston. At 50K I am down in maximum charging from the original 315 miles to 313 miles. At that < 1% rate of capacity loss for 50K I could gladly keep this car for a million miles. The biggest expense was a set of tires - on top of the pothole tire and replacing the rim. (eventually - at the time the rim seemed ok but my shop pointed out damage and I had it replaced before the Coast 2 Coast and back trip.) Tires were about $1200 for a nice set of Michelins mounted.</p><p>Over one thousand uses of my Tesla home charger 240V charger. Zero issues. At 5 seconds extra to plug each night and unplug each morning I have spent an hour and a half of the last three and half years on keeping charged for all my PA/DC/MD/VA driving. I keep a 120V/240V Tesla mobile charger (was included) in the trunk - never needed for the possible emergency - knock on wood. Handy though for trickle charging at OBX.</p><p>Speaking of charging, Tesla has added Superchargers in Gettysburg,PA; Kitty Hawk,NC; Frederick, MD; and many others. I am hopeful this rate of expansion continues. While I have never had to wait for a Supercharger spot - again knock on wood, I have pulled into the last a couple times. So keep building them Tesla because I see more Model 3s and Ys everyday.</p><p>Failures? I had my car computer replaced for free as I bought FSD (Full Self Driving) up front. While autopilot is great with adult supervision on highways, it still at 3+ years is not FSD. Still I would have paid a similar price for the current autopilot. Still want the promised FSD. Replacing cabin air filter soon. Wipers and Wiper Fluid. No brake work yet, due to regen braking putting energy back into the car rather than wasting it heating brake shoes.</p><p>Other failures (not fixed yet). The charge flap used to auto open and close. As the car is now out of bumper to bumper warranty, so I just close and open manually. No yearly PA inspection issues.</p><p>I paid it off and have solar at home so I'm driving on sunshine. Will try to blog more but again it's just like owning any fast roomy sports car. Except cheaper, faster, safer, easier to fuel, and cleaner. Way cleaner.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>.</p><p><br /></p><p> </p><p><br /></p>D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-91756887206164006912019-12-30T18:40:00.001-08:002019-12-30T18:43:03.828-08:00A Charged Up Year - So how about you?A small ten posts for this year. I did do the National Drive Electric Week.<br />
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Why do I become complacent on blogging when I'm having the best drives of my life. Whether Coast to Coast or family visits Circe the Tesla Model 3 LR RWD has performed quite well. True self driving seems no closer than the beginning of the year but I can be patient. If any one issue bugged me it was going through my tires at only 39K miles.<br />
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However it's hard to blame the car when I love the accelerating. I generally stay with the speed limit but I do like to get to it smartly. Add 4000 lbs of vehicle and D G, and we are talking tires wearing quickly. I was feeling that - especially in rain and snow so at the 20 month mark it's 4 new tires and they are great again. I had hoped to get to 2 years and at least 40K miles. Maybe this will motivate me to cut back on the jackrabbiting. Still, The Tesla Model 3 continues to be the most efficient electric on the road.<br />
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A quick fast charging pic as I have no new Circe exterior pics. This was in Kill Devil Hills NC USA.<br />
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Very Fast and not even version 3</div>
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So what is stopping you my friend? This car in a base 240 mile model with an electric drivetrain that protects us from climate change and carbon emissions is about $40K. Do you really prefer an ICE engine that is pretty and smooth now but a smokey monster in 5 or 6 years? I'm amazed every time I read or hear someone proudly announce they bought another gas monster.</div>
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Please in the coming year think before you leap - your decisions add up to a world our kids do or don't survive.</div>
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D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-74638151913534169922019-09-30T17:10:00.002-07:002019-09-30T17:10:50.868-07:00National Drive Electric Week 2019 NDEWSo I had the fun of helping with two NDEW events. The Frederick Mom's Organic was the smallest and for me the most enjoyable.<br />
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This event had about 15 electrics - two blue TM3's including Circe. People were walk ups - some aware of electrics some not. I'd still say we probably outnumbered the people new to electrics but it was nice giving us time to talk to the interested and pass out handouts on all the electrics available - courtesy EVA/DC.</div>
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Poolsville MD is the biggest EV gathering in the area and fun in a big event kind of way. My favorite part was the MD/VOLT EV ferry ride to the event. It's a $5 one way ferry trip but scenic and fun. Poolsville itself is really a city parade and fair - Electric Vehicles are kind of a sideshow but a big one. Not as many new people to discuss electrics with as many stay down at the fair food trucks area. Still worth coming and representing. Here's a little ferry boat picture.</div>
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Overall definitely worth the time - especially for people with questions about electric cars. This group also tends to be knowledgeable on solar power for the home as well. Probably more discussion with my fellow electric fans than new people but that's fun too.</div>
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I'm wondering if it might be worth my time to get together an electric event up here in PA. Maybe in Gettysburg or Waynesboro next year if I can drum up some interest.</div>
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D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-19859486590481987382019-08-30T23:14:00.000-07:002019-08-30T23:14:51.475-07:00No News equals Good News?I like having something to blog about but really my Tesla Model 3 has been too reliable. After the Coast to Coast trip the car has been down to Nags Head and up to Boston. As usual the car was flawless. In the New England trip I was able to drive from the Southern PA border near Hagerstown MD up to the Darien CT supercharger in one reach - most of the miles at 75mph. The autopilot and Traffic Aware Cruise Control (TACC) were excellent. I really only use Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) while traffic is light. I often find the auto passing on NOA a little aggressive for my taste when traffic is busy. TACC however I use constantly. It slows down when traffic down but keeps me close enough to the speed limit to avoid tickets. Autopilot depends on the situation but I keep it on more than 2/3rds of the travel.<br />
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So the biggest point is I have plenty of travel but no special issues. Tesla has day to day news - but it's covered elsewhere. I can tell friends and family how inexpensive operating the Model 3 is - about a third or less the cost of gas. Still the upfront cost - a minimum of $40K and fear of the difference seems to put buyers off. The Model 3 is selling in record numbers for an electric but still most buyers despite having children buy polluting gas cars and years of future carbon emissions.<br />
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As always - I keep letting people know the Model 3 is a better, faster, safer, and long term cheaper. It's all I can do. So I may not blog as much as I should. Hope the Model Y and a truck will help in the long run.D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-91338257036467691962019-06-25T13:55:00.001-07:002019-07-02T15:31:55.751-07:00Fanboys<h4>
A Fanboy in the Wild.</h4>
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Yeah that's me. Not pretty. Sincere though. I have two grown sons who I worry for.<br />
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Social Media Clowning for Fun and No Profit.</h4>
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A Car centric social media group leader, Russell Frost, that I respect has a weekly cast about Tesla and one about the future of transport technology. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNMXmoTyxHeaHtd0MlHysdA" target="_blank">The Tesla Life</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqhiyJZ_HkK_rwEK_MZToTw" target="_blank">What Drives Us</a>. I am a 'fan' and I enjoy hanging out on the chat windows for both shows. I freely admit to being too sophomoric given the whole group of commenters and chat folk. With a beer in hand I am probably not nearly as funny as I think am. If I was trying to be fair I'd put myself in the Tesla fan category and Russell in the critic side. I like to think we both have valid points and can at least wear the other side's shoes.</div>
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This is the kind of back and forth and discussion I like. Where both sides can laugh at themselves and see honest points that they would not have made.<br />
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The negative sides of my hard core Fanboys.</h4>
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So before we jump into downside of climate change deniers let's state the obvious. Being blind to examining the whole of issues and bullying the other side is a hard core mistake on the eco side. Even those of us trying to be fair and self examining will stray into this - I have jumped in people's manure because I felt they were pushing the TSLAQ agenda. This agenda in stock lingo is to push Tesla to bankruptcy. Even with this threat to a leader in sustainability there is not room for troll behavior. The bullying is out there too. Just because one self identifies as part of this 'eco' tribe we feel righteous about, regardless of positives, we need to look at ourselves and our motivating ideas every day. Find the flaws and issues in our own commandments and plans for action. Without critique or self examination though how do we get to improvement? Improvement in this movement really needs to happen for the whole world to work on population growth, climate change, sustainable energy and materials, and an secure home for Earth's life.</div>
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So a next big negative is not appreciating other voices, organizations, and car makers are part of a big system we need for sustainable life on Earth. Tesla alone winning in a zero sum game that probably results in so much waste that the overall goal is never achieved. If as a fanboy you can't at least examine other EV car makers and sustainable industries with hope and a genuine desire for success then our side has a real problem. Somehow BOYS, we have to remain open and listening in a world that disparages ecological motives, add and respect women's voices on our side, and not adopt the worst 'shout them down' behavior we see elsewhere. </div>
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So a self exam is in order. Another big point is a leading company like Tesla can't have a self exam unless it is open in problem areas such as employee treatment and warranty support for customers. Similarly we the fans have to self examine what is positive in our social media interaction and what just feeds the trolls. What distinguishes a troll vs a critic with a point?<br />
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One area I think critics have valid points on is Tesla employee treatment. My best guess is that voices on this have enough smoke that there is some real fire. Conversely I think the troll and UAW special interests blow up the scale of these issues - we have discussed this in earlier blogs here. I don't think it can be denied that Tesla is amateurish is handling employee morale, hiring, and layoffs. The question is how does this improve without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.<br />
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However there are Bears in these woods.</h4>
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I don't just mean stock players trying depress the TSLA price in a short strategy. We have established industries, like oil/coal, directly financing lobbies with social media teams pressing anti Tesla memes and trolling. Employees hurt by disruptive Tesla in their old line functions such as ICE car makers and dealership owners. Engine, emission, and transmission repair shops and workers. </div>
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Media too is none too thrilled with the Tesla 'no ads' system. I see articles that range from fawning praise to nonsensical 'death watch' pieces. If you are writing the latter, I really don't think you can cry too loudly as in a Python skit 'Help, Help I'm being repressed!'. While I encourage civility and calm retort, I'll be honest - I hope someday those leading us down a path to a ravaged Earth are one day called to account. </div>
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The Alligators are real in this swamp:</div>
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Credit where credit is due.</h4>
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So my retirement is in indexed funds. I also have a little Roth account for play though and instead of being in something sensible it's in Tesla. Long. Just for the mission. TSLAQ can depress the price, I'll be long and support Tesla's current governance as long as they adhere to the mission. I do hope for better employee conditions, more realistic time frames on goals, and less 'monkey business' in the news. I have Tesla Solar panels and a Powerwall working in a very nice system for my cottage charging my car - a Tesla Model 3. I didn't start here. I worked for NOAA and became aware of atmospheric carbon levels 20 years ago. I tried the Honda Civic hybrid, the Nissan Leaf and the Think City. None was enough of an improvement to really sell electrics to my mainstream friends. Musk may not be a saint or a genius, but he is smart enough to be leading and growing a company dedicated to attractive sustainable solutions for our planet's future. I can put up with some ego if that mission continues.<br />
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This is also why even though I want Tesla to improve employee relations I would oppose having that done at the expense of the mission. Thus far Tesla has been the only car maker a no compromise electric car at near to what I could afford. I credit Nissan and GM for making a lukewarm entry with decent cars. Tesla is the primary one pushing everyone. I believe VW, Audi, Jaguar, Porsche, BMW, and the others are sincere but not fully committed. Maybe Rivian, maybe Hyundai. Until we get full in players I support the leader in electrification and hope for more leaders. </div>
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Finally a note on incentives.</h4>
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I'm retired - I have no regular payments from anyone to say anything. For recommending Tesla's to car buyers I have received 2 Tesla charge cables ($500 each. One given to a friend and one to my son), early OTA updates (that usually aren't that early), a party invite (Model Y party, paid for my own transport and hotel - kinda dull actually), and eventually one week's rental of a Model X (given to my other non-tesla son to get him considering a Tesla car). These 5 incentives were in return for 6 Tesla car sale referrals. Tesla gave me nada for the sixth referral which didn't trouble me at all. I'm fine with these incentives to be honest I see no way they would sway my opinions - good and bad of the Tesla brand and technology. Anyone needing a referral just ask in the comments section - I have no issues doing so and it gets the car buyer and myself some free supercharging miles. Enjoy!</div>
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D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-85614135140303779372019-05-02T07:27:00.001-07:002019-07-02T15:44:47.997-07:00C2C - Supercharging on a Distance Trip.The only way to really understand the size of the USA is to drive. Even after a Coast to Coast and back trip I'm not really there - after all Alaska would probably double such a trip.<br />
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Still to review:<br />
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6370 Miles + 440 Mile Wilmington NC leg = 6810 miles sea to sea and back home.</div>
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Now considering the 300 miles were off the home charger, that meant 6,500 miles were Supercharged at 45 SC stops across the country. Sometimes my planning worked well - other times not so much. April was still cold over much of the country so often I would be force to add a final SC stop knowing the battery would be cold overnight and wake up considerably lower than I stopped with.</div>
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This could be the reason 151.4 = 6810 / 45 stops. Given I had two 120 plugins - one KOA and Texas, plus a 240 charge worth 80 miles or so I'd say we can call this 150 miles average. I think that's because I often choose to make two 15 min stops topping around 55-60% rather than a single full charge taking 55-1 Hr 10 minutes.</div>
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The final part of the charging puzzle I just couldn't find on the fly. Destination charging. This would have been a big help. When you pull out the driveway at 300miles+ in the battery it really opens up the options and cuts back on the extra SC stops. One medium 45 minute stop places you at 500 miles for the day and then another Destination Charger means you can do it all again. Planning with a Better Route Planner or staying at different places would have helped here.</div>
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I was also pushing hard on daily distance on my starting days to cut cost. If I had a little extra cash I might not have done that - saving wear and tear on my sixty year old self. My first return day started at 8:30am and ended at 11pm. Admittedly part of this was because of large sections of road that were 30-40 mph for whole morning. I picked a beautiful mountain and lake route but it cost in time.</div>
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So while SC fueling is not more convenient than gas it's getting close. With Destination Charging at hotels it could be about the same. Day to day though with a home charger it beats gas hands down as normally one never stops with 300 miles of range any morning you wake up.</div>
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Happy EV motoring!</div>
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-57927695409577797942019-05-01T07:35:00.000-07:002019-05-01T07:35:31.471-07:00C2C - Vacation objectives<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w0K1V6wrVGU/XMmlk_VPvBI/AAAAAAAAGcE/swvNtieX5uYipJ5Rsplr3KeOMQwwKvfKwCLcBGAs/s1600/IMG_0616.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="983" data-original-width="1600" height="245" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w0K1V6wrVGU/XMmlk_VPvBI/AAAAAAAAGcE/swvNtieX5uYipJ5Rsplr3KeOMQwwKvfKwCLcBGAs/s400/IMG_0616.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The view from the vacation EV office - not too shabby.</div>
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So first I wanted to first hold the vacation costs to about $2,000. Normally I'd consider more but as a Tesla Model 3 owner still paying off his car and retiree I had to go modest. Next I wanted to do an EV Coast to Coast trip to showcase the Model 3 as practical option to tour cross country with Tesla's very good Super Charger network.</div>
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Next since I had three cheap nights reserved at the Elara in Vegas for $200 (timeshare pitch), I wanted to see a couple shows - I picked Penn & Teller because I'm a fan and there are some illusions they only do in Vegas and the 'Love' cirque show because - well I'm an old guy who likes the Beatles. The Elara gave me a really nice suite with great views so that was a luxury highlight.</div>
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On the EV (Electric Vehicle) side I wanted to go to the Tesla Fremont factory where my car was assembled. Any Tesla owner can reserve this tour once a year and bring three guests. I was traveling alone as that is my situation but this tour costs nothing at present and would be great with a group.</div>
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Next I wanted to drive the Tesla on PCH (Pacific Coast Highway 1). That objective would be accomplished and more, as you have seen in the articles photograph and more to come.</div>
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Another objective: I hoped to drop in on friends along the way - which worked in one case and made my Texas stay a lot of fun. More would have been great but Texas was awesome.</div>
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Finally - Could I actually car camp to keep expenses down? This was mixed for me so we will cover it in depth but the short version is it can work. How about the mount of driving required?</div>
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Next C2C blog entry tomorrow, first another view from the office</div>
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-545984054208897232019-04-29T13:43:00.001-07:002019-04-29T17:25:42.189-07:00Coast to Coast and back again.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ij1IdJcMOfQ/XMdSzYUBEMI/AAAAAAAAGbo/vORq6YTBeXwtU09JDBaMzggCFO_0k9cqQCLcBGAs/s1600/IMG_0442.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ij1IdJcMOfQ/XMdSzYUBEMI/AAAAAAAAGbo/vORq6YTBeXwtU09JDBaMzggCFO_0k9cqQCLcBGAs/s400/IMG_0442.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Bought a 3 night stay in Las Vegas by Hilton as part of their points promotions for $200. Yep it was a timeshare deal so I had to endure a pitch but I can do that without biting standing on my head - and did. My preference was to fly but then I thought - The Big Roadtrip. If any car could do this well I believed it would be Circe the Tesla Model 3. Add that I had just come back from Wilmington NC so I could call it Coast to Coast ( return just to Blue Ridge Summit, PA ) out and almost that back. I emailed Tesla for an appointment for the factory and got one for Earth Day April 22. This tour of EV Willy Wonkaland is not to be missed and would be another great excuse for Road Tripping.<br />
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Let's give you the Cliff Notes version and then I'll spend some May blog entries going into the trip in detail.<br />
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Travel days out (5.5):<br />
2019 APR 2nd Wilmington -> My home in Blue Ridge Summit<br />
2019 APR 14/15 Home -> Plano TX<br />
2019 APR 17/18 TX -> Vegas<br />
2019 APR 21 Vegas -> San Francisco/Fremont CA<br />
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Travel days back (5)<br />
2019 APR 24-28<br />
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Accomodations:<br />
2 Car Camp (Glamp?) days at KOAs total about $95 with membership.<br />
2 Hampton Inn stays on points.<br />
3 Hampton Inn stays avg $130 with taxes etc - total $400<br />
3 Nights at the Elara for $200<br />
2 Nights with friends in Plano TX<br />
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Mileage total 6,810<br />
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Fuel - aka 45 SuperCharging stops totalling $357.58<br />
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Cost per mile with Super Charging = 5.25 cents a mile electric cost.<br />
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While this is higher than my rate at home ( when using the grid vs my solar ) of 3 cents a mile I figure it still beats the pants off gas at 10+ cents a mile ($3 gal / 30mph) + whatever costs one attributes to roasting your grandkids.<br />
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That's the overview, I'll add some articles in May in depth. Happy (Electric) Motoring.<br />
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-24782107609122419822019-03-21T21:32:00.002-07:002019-03-23T10:04:27.957-07:00My experience at the Model Y Debutante partyTesla introduced their new Model Y. It's a slick Crossover - I wouldn't call it a full SUV in size. About 3" to 6" inches taller than a Model 3 and a hatchback so 66 cu ft of space. Even more of a glass roof (longer back all the way to the liftback) which is beautiful. Coefficient of Drag 0.23.<br />
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Please consider my referral code if you want to buy any Tesla. If you use it we both 400 kwh of free Supercharging. <a data-untranslated-label="http://ts.la/david901" href="http://ts.la/david901" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cc0000; font-family: "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese", "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese_n5", "HeiT ASC Traditional Chinese", HelveticaNeue-Regular, "Helvetica Neue Regular", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">http://ts.la/david901</a><br />
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Basically the Model 3 sled and electronics for reliability . Very pretty. Here's a pic I took of the Model Y white mule:<br />
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Now for me the show was more exciting to check out the Roadster Version 2:</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SvnIpsMp6v4/XJRdJDDBJWI/AAAAAAAAGYU/Nqzi4QSjwPshdFayFgl5JdewHF3jozvyACLcBGAs/s1600/IMG_2116.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="774" data-original-width="1600" height="192" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SvnIpsMp6v4/XJRdJDDBJWI/AAAAAAAAGYU/Nqzi4QSjwPshdFayFgl5JdewHF3jozvyACLcBGAs/s400/IMG_2116.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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I can't afford but it sure is super pretty. No rides for anything but the Model Y. Kimball Musk, my cousin's sustainable vegan hero of local grown veggies was there and kindly allowed a selfie:<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9GmVObQs0Zc/XJRfQ8jzi5I/AAAAAAAAGYg/JmaC6PDQ0y8fUhKskRge-hQrNB-V32yNACLcBGAs/s1600/IMG_2097.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1056" data-original-width="1600" height="263" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9GmVObQs0Zc/XJRfQ8jzi5I/AAAAAAAAGYg/JmaC6PDQ0y8fUhKskRge-hQrNB-V32yNACLcBGAs/s400/IMG_2097.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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A fun party indeed but I was too tired to outwait the press and others for a Tesla Y test drives. (which can be seen on youtube) I did however get a Starman selfie as well;<br />
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I still enjoyed the trip greatly and will have more to come. Let's end this with me near the giant supercharger obolith:<br />
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-71741166970471838182019-02-04T14:54:00.000-08:002019-02-06T17:57:07.053-08:00EV Batteries and the World's Smallest ViolinWarning - I'm taking these numbers from an Electrek article and they seem an order of magnitude high compared to Jack Ricard. I tend to trust Ricard so I'm looking for issues with my math -be forewarned!<br />
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28,000 Tons - That's your lithium needs at Tesla's (Gigafactory) GF 1 in Sparks Nevada if they get to full blast production. This allows them to produce their target of 35 GWH of battery storage a year. So each Gigawatt hour of storage requires 800 tons of Lithium hydroxide if Electrek is on target.<br />
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Reference 1:<br />
<a href="https://electrek.co/2018/09/21/tesla-lithium-supply-agreement-china-producer-batteries/" target="_blank">Electrek.co Tesla-lithium-supply-agreement-china-producer-batteries</a><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">( Electrek quote: "<span style="background-color: white;">If Gigafactory 1 reaches its goal of 35 GWh of battery cell production by the end of the year, it is estimated to need about 28,000 tons of lithium hydroxide per year." </span> This is sourced from Bloomberg - quote "<span style="background-color: white;">Tesla may need as much as 28,000 tons of lithium hydroxide a year from late next year based on battery output at its Nevada facility reaching the equivalent of 35 gigawatt hours, according to Benchmark Mineral’s forecasts.</span><span style="background-color: white;"> " )</span></span><br />
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Note the way the quotes above inflate so again a warning that my estimates using it looks high. <br />
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This last year 2018 GF1 produced 1.1 GWH of Powerpack and Powerwall storage. Tesla Fremont produced 245,240 (Electric Vehicles) EV's in 2018. So we can extrapolate GF1 car GWH by 245240 x 75kwh = 18.4 GWH or 19.5 GWH with energy products. So estimate GF1 is for 2018 running at 56 percent of their possible production. Again a round estimate at total car lithium is 18.4 x 800 tons = 14,720 tons of lithium in Tesla 2018 EVs.<br />
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As usual the bloviating paid for shills of oil are spinning this as environmentally worse than their smoking clanking infernal combustion machine production and oil to gasoline production costs.<br />
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Let's go with a back of the envelope calculation:<br />
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35,000,000,000 / 75+ KWH = 450,000 Model 3's at full blast if the Model 3 continues to sell. So basically all Fremont could handle. Sounds ballpark. For now let's work with 2018's production of 245,240 EV cars at 18.4GWH of Gigafactory 1 output requiring 14,720 tons of Lithium hydroxide.<br />
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Each US ton would .63 cubic meters and 14,720 tons stores in 9273.6 cubic meters - about 100' by 150' by 20' high warehouse room would store that. Two rooms for the GF1 at full blast to store a years worth of lithium hydroxide for electrolyte. About 200 tractor trailer loads a year - less than 2% of what a big container ship delivers. So when a you think of the Lithium Hydroxide in your battery on a TM3 be thankful for a 60 lb cube of the stuff 11 inches on a side that has been mixed with liquid to become electrolyte for 4416 individual battery cylinder cells.<br />
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Don't believe the hype that this is worse than say the rare earths in the multiple catalytic converters that a gas car requires over it's life. My Honda Civic at 180,000 miles took 2 replacements at $1300 each for a total of three during it's ten years of service with me.<br />
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14,720 x @$20,500 per ton = $302,000,000 in EV Lithium hydroxide cost a year or $1230 a 75kwh car.<br />
<a href="https://www.globalxfunds.com/benchmark-what-drove-lithium-prices-in-december/" target="_blank">https://www.globalxfunds.com/benchmark-what-drove-lithium-prices-in-december/</a><br />
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But wait that's 60 lbs of Lithium hydroxide - didn't we previously estimate Li content at tops 20 lbs for the Model 3's 75kwh 1050 lb battery sled? Remember anhydrous Lithium Hydroxide is three times the weight per mole of straight lithium - or about three times the weight for similar volume. So maybe our Li element weight is still ballpark if high. Remember also Elon's projection of $100 per kwh for raw batteries this year? So your sled in the Tesla Model 3 is basically the world's finest $10K magic carpet - $7500 batteries and $2500 (SWAG) in the integrated penthouse electronics.<br />
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Again - trying to see if our estimate continue to stay in the ballpark - Jack Rickard mentions an eyedropper full of electrolyte is all that's needed in a 2170 individual battery cell. That's about a half a milliliter in a standard prescription bottle. He mentions the electrolyte liquid is ethylene carbonate. So a guess would be 1 ml x 2208 = 2.2 liters per pack. 2.2 liters seems too low volumn to be the solvent of the electrolyte so I continue to find the numbers for Lithium Hydroxide high.<br />
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I'm going to continue to recheck and resource these numbers - as the lithium amounts and costs compared to Jack (a serious battery expert) seem high. Please feel free to comment on any errors you see. For the moment it's an upper bound as we look for better numbers.<br />
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Jack Rickards Latest in Depth Discussion of the Model 3 battery pack:<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nhQw7iGukE" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nhQw7iGukE</a><br />
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-67695514010483106032019-01-02T19:29:00.002-08:002019-01-02T19:29:26.112-08:00New Year and a New Tesla Model 3 ownerMy son graduates in the spring with a four year degree in the arts and plenty of cinematography under his belt. <br />
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We wanted a present that would be both practical and amazing. So I pitched the base mid-range Tesla Model 3 to the ex with a cost split - a third apiece. We did that with the Think and it worked well and was paid off on a four year loan in his high school and part of college. The Think however, was not getting used for the last two years due a longer student commute. Plue his ICE clunker had an engine light on and the fed tax rebate was dropping away for good.<br />
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So add Xmas to the mix and here we are:<br />
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It should be noted an EV car costs about a third to operate vs gas - with the exception of tires. He'll go through a set every two years so I'm guessing put aside $400 a year plus $100 for the LTE streaming service after the first year. The idea being one third of a 40K car 5 year loan = $250 payments for him with mom and Dad taking each a third over five years. A deal a kid waiting tables or working tech support while looking for that good film job could swing, with a little thriftiness. With electric costing $400 a year vs $1600 in gas that alone is like a young man's $200 a month car but reliable, electric, and clean, with enough cargo space for small moves. He has no student loans.<br />
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We took basic black aero wheels mid range (260 mile), no automation software - 47,200 delivered. Maryland tax paid upfront and $7500 gifted from me up here in PA strings free. That gets the Mom & grad pair down in MD to the 40K loan plus the eventual fed rebate and possibly MD excise tax refunded. My third of the loan payments I simply account for as a gift to them of $3000 a year well inside Federal gift limits as was the $7500 in 2018. When the car is paid off Mom simply transfers it fully to son, MD is reasonable about parent title transfers.<br />
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Yeah it is over the top. This is the kid however who has made good grades, worked every summer and often works during school so as to not have to ask for much. He's the first to get a four year degree. My older very successful son has a solid 2 year AA degree and a fantastic job. Very proud of him as well. Still this four year degree is big deal to me. I never accomplished that...<br />
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The second part of why is Kevin has been with me to countless EV shows - just because he was interested in EV's and how they could reduce the carbon footprint and climate change. He showed people his Think and my Leaf at several DC Auto shows, EVA/DC and MD Volt meetups. He paid for his Think and used it right up to an curbing that put it out of operation just as his driving needs became longer range. He has solidly helped the EV cause and rather than struggling with check engine lights and oily repairs going nowhere this is a last present to help boost him into orbit as an adult.<br />
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Good luck son. We all are going to need it but at least you will have some fun on the way.<br />
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Love Dad<br />
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D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-7561483810874436372018-11-29T08:33:00.002-08:002018-11-29T08:33:11.350-08:00Lemur (L3MR) Time and end of the Full US tax credit on Friday Nov30 2018Well Tesla has come out with the Medium Range (MR) model. Sadly at first they knocked off $4000 off the original LR RWD model price - which is gone. Now that's only $3000 off as they noted the demand. You still have to pay for a premium interior with glass roof. (which is quite nice BTW) Those people who said Elon would never make the base model appear at least for the moment to be right. This is just like mine except the battery range is 260 miles EPA and a curb weight of 3686 vs my LR RWD at 3814. One hundred and twenty eight pounds lighter presumably due to less battery weight.<br />
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Still for those wanting the US tax credit the base car is pretty much the cheapest things can get:<br />
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MR 3 in basic black with 18" aero rims delivery & doc - 47200<br />
MD excise tax 2800<br />
Tags 200<br />
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Total $50,200 - this is with no Enhanced Autopilot that you can add later.<br />
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Then a full tax refund early the next year.... about $43K - pretty good for a new Tesla. <br />
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(In Maryland excise tax deductions for electric appears depleted. Should be another $3000 if they get more funding in the summer 2019. So maybe $40K? in Maryland if they fund the program?<br />
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Tesla is only guaranteeing the full tax credit for orders placed through Friday Nov 30th because they have to deliver by Dec 31st to make the full tax credit. Orders delivered Jan 1, 2019 to June 30th will get half ($3750) when they file in 2020.<br />
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So order now kids for a $40K Tesla not counting your state tax. One day left !!!!<br />
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Here's my referral code so you can get free supercharging for six months on top of that:<br />
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<a data-untranslated-label="http://ts.la/david901" href="http://ts.la/david901" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cc0000; font-family: "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese", "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese_n5", "HeiT ASC Traditional Chinese", HelveticaNeue-Regular, "Helvetica Neue Regular", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">http://ts.la/david901</a><br />
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-78582636695290187182018-10-27T06:55:00.000-07:002018-10-27T06:55:43.156-07:00Tesla - US employees fighting for us all Who is the largest <span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese", "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese_n5", "HeiT ASC Traditional Chinese", HelveticaNeue-Regular, "Helvetica Neue Regular", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">manufacturer in the USA state of California. Tesla. After a four month Cal-OSHA investigation on safety, Tesla was found to have two minor safety reporting issues.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese", "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese_n5", "HeiT ASC Traditional Chinese", HelveticaNeue-Regular, "Helvetica Neue Regular", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://www.tesla.com/blog/one-year-in-tesla-update?utm_campaign=&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social" target="_blank">Tesla one-year-in-tesla-update</a></span><br />
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Remember the NPR/Reveal hit piece on Tesla safety? Tesla sources claimed it was a UAW + a disgruntled employee hit piece. Now I believe that unions have gained many victories for labor - but big unions simply have political agendas. Musk has held off the bad side of unionization by offering great security and rewards for his employees. Now he can offer tremendous safety benefits.<br />
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US Jobs, highly compensated and safer. Safest cars in the world.<br />
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Profitable company making the cleanest and safest cars in the world. Outcompeting all luxury cars and SUVs, competing (#4) in regular cars, a regular SUV just ahead, and a truck in the wings.<br />
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I am not a stock advisor and therefore can't give stock advice, but for me my long Tesla stock purchase is very satisfying. I own a piece of a company trying to save children. Your children. Our future. Not in a greenwash way but in a concrete here and now.<br />
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Tesla has many enemies - Oil and gas companies, the Koch brothers, the UAW, parts and maintenance shops, gas stations, auto dealers, and old line auto companies.<br />
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This is nothing less then a battle for the survival of our descendants and humankind.<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">From this day to the ending of the world,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">But we in it shall be rememberèd—</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">For he to-day that sheds his blood with me</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">This day shall gentle his condition;</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">And gentlemen in England now a-bed</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.</span><br />
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The hour seems dark before the US midterms. Foolish men think they can roll back the clock to a smoggy paradise run by the privileged.<br />
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Your choice doesn't have to be Tesla which is pricey. A used Volt for $12K can drop your gas use into the basement and involves no compromise. The Bolt is a good electric. If you drive only in the city or local a Leaf can meet short driving needs.<br />
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Join us.<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese", "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese_n5", "HeiT ASC Traditional Chinese", HelveticaNeue-Regular, "Helvetica Neue Regular", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><br /></span>D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-78864025891748004552018-10-09T20:15:00.002-07:002018-10-09T20:50:20.466-07:00Climate Change - Does anyone have kids?The dull look I get from 3/4 of people discussing global warming ( screw 'change') show the incredible crime the oil companies and their owners have purposefully committed. A new UN report details time is short by even human civilization's timespan - 22 years to make earth moving change. I believe one day this purposeful genocide will result in a very ugly justice to the fossil fuel barrons involved, their minions, political rulers that went along, and all their descendants. Look at the conservatives rough populist movement and then imagine them without food as the breadbasket of the US bakes in drought. This is in twenty years - not a century.<br />
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No amount of science seems to be able move people to leaders who will push renewable energy, carbon taxed economics, smaller families, and sustainable ecological practices. People just can't bring themselves to spend a little more for solar at home or an Electric Vehicle instead of a polluting diesel. One child instead of four. Instead we all paste pictures of our good looking descendents to Facebook. My young men won't be fifty before they are struggling for survival with their families.<br />
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Patton Oswalt sounds the alarm better than I:<br />
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<a href="https://twitter.com/pattonoswalt/status/1049529720503586816" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/pattonoswalt/status/1049529720503586816</a><br />
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I'm all for human space exploration and even colonization. However even with hundreds of years no other planet exists to make into a paradise - Mars may one day support colonies but it's improbable that it will approach Earth's habitability. So space is great insurance to guard against an asteroid and encouraging a spirit of exploration but don't kid yourself - science has no 'Planet B' for us for centuries if ever. Even a Science Fiction guy can tell you, the vast majority humankind's masses will always be dependent on the good Earth. We stand or fall here.<br />
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Apparently we have twenty years to get our shit together. The time for waiting, crying about the cost to business for survival, is over. Grab your pitchforks.<br />
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-64727910335567545182018-10-08T06:14:00.001-07:002018-10-08T06:14:26.957-07:00A nice confirmation from NHTSA - SAFETY !Hey where was the data on Tesla safety? After all this blog has been big on specs for everything else. I claimed that electrics in general are safer and they are. In particular my latest brand of EV - Tesla.<br />
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Basically NHTSA has given the Tesla Model 3 it's best crash rating ever by probability of injury. Electrek and Tesla have the figures below.<br />
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<a href="https://electrek.co/2018/10/07/tesla-model-3-lowest-probability-of-injury-nhtsa/#disqus_thread" target="_blank">electrek.co tesla-model-3-lowest-probability-of-injury-nhtsa</a><br />
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<a href="https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-3-lowest-probability-injury-any-vehicle-ever-tested-nhtsa" target="_blank">Tesla - Model 3 lowest probability injury... </a><br />
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Now one thing about the best 50 cars NHSTA injury graph shown in the articles is the Y axis for percentage of injuries across the 50 best cars is blown up a bit ranging from best - Tesla Model 3 at ~5.8% up to ~ 8.1 % The mean of the worst 40 in the graph appears to be around 8%. These are the top performers but only Tesla in the top 3 positions for safety is broken out by name. Still a 25% reduction in injury over the pack of safest cars #11-50 is pretty impressive considering the first 3 of the ten are Tesla and then I would guess Volvo + some very high end cars for #4-10.<br />
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Now let's look at the figures from Tesla on crashes per mile.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report" target="_blank">Tesla q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report</a><br />
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Here's the meat:<br />
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Here’s a look at the data we’re able to report for Q3:</div>
<ul class="factory-list" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese", "HeiS ASC Simplified Chinese_n5", "HeiT ASC Traditional Chinese", HelveticaNeue-Regular, "Helvetica Neue Regular", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: outside; margin: -10px 0px 20px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li class="factory-list-item" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Over the past quarter, we’ve registered one accident or crash-like event for every 3.34 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged.</li>
<li class="factory-list-item" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles. While NHTSA’s data includes accidents that have occurred, our records include accidents as well as near misses (what we are calling crash-like events).</li>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Basically a Tesla has a 25% chance of crash without autopilot vs the overall rate of crash per mile of all US cars for Q3 2018. We'll see if these figures hold up for Winter....<br />So 1 (Tesla US) in 4 (All US) crashes for the same mileage. Cool eh? That's WITHOUT autopilot.<br />With autopilot that goes down further 1 Tesla crash vs 7 general crashes for the same miles driven.<br />Then if you are in a crash, injury rate is under 6% vs 8% for the safest cars as shown.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">My choice of car is an Electric Vehicle rated best for safety on the planet. If my health was half as good.</span><br />
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-2119840496311332382018-10-01T09:19:00.000-07:002018-10-01T09:23:51.461-07:00Slippery TeslaOk I purposefully made the title sound like a stock shorter's hit piece for a little excitement - I cheated there...<br />
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This one is about aerodynamics - which I find fascinating. Again recognizing my betters out there I'm going provide a link to an in depth video way better than my writing can inform you - but first a testimonial.<br />
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Many folks care little for efficiency. I care a great deal for it and Circe my Tesla Model 3 has delivered in spades. Having had a Leaf where I labored to get the watt hour per mile metric under 400 for five plus years I really appreciate the TM3 on efficiency these first 10k miles.<br />
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I know you can barely see it but my Trip B is for the whole 10K+ miles I have on the car over 6 months and three road trips - 260 wh/mile. Now I like to accelerate fast at least a couple of times per short trip in certain places and as needed on long highway trips. I'm also a steady driver during highway portions when I am not accelerating up to speed so my Trip B down to North Carolina shore - 259 wh/mile.</div>
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This is because Tesla has out engineered everyone on coefficient of drag - if you will recall from my statistics blog it's 0.23. That's up there with the slickest vehicles ever made. The hubcap/wheels are particularly amazing which is why when others cry about the aero's not looking like a metallic spider I grin and tell them they are the most beautiful wheels ever made. You can keep all the others.</div>
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These wheels in particular are very important for the critical band of 70-75 mph I like on the highway. The Leaf could run this easily but the efficiency dropped like a rock. Sadly I can't give you exact numbers but I can tell I still ran 300+ with a few miles to spare pushing that first leg of a road trip in the seventies and I love making that first supercharger with 3% and getting back that first half at 120kw Supercharging in 15 minutes for 160 miles of range or so. We had stopped for lunch and basically got a full charge but we could have easily pulled out after 20 minutes and made it home.</div>
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The whole body/chassis design of the Tesla Model 3 is basically this cleverly aerodynamic but you just don't know it. Yet beautiful too - anyone sees that. Well now you can learn in depth - check out this series of two videos by Youtuber Matt Shumaker at Tech Forum. The first is 23 minutes and the second is 12 minutes. Well worth your time on the fine details of auto aerodynamics and the Model 3:</div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKWl_4EYaKo" target="_blank">Model 3 Aerodynamics #1</a> </div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9__GtRb616M&t=42s" target="_blank">Model 3 Aerodynamics #2</a></div>
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Tech Forum is really worth a subscribe. I love that Matt mentions the old Honda Insight - a pioneer in efficiency. I really recommend his videos on Tesla. All in all it means I can drive faster and yet be in a fun car that performs way better than the first generation of electrics. So glad Tesla and Franz did such an incredible job! </div>
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-39847923263450957282018-09-28T21:20:00.000-07:002018-09-28T21:20:01.863-07:00General EV News for SeptemberNational Drive Electric Week (NDEW) was a success in many areas. In Poolsville, MD there were record numbers of Electric Vehicles (EVs) over several days.<div>
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I instead went to a small session at a library in Walkersville, MD. I kind of like a small gathering and this one features Jonathan Slade & Novia Campbell who made a PBS special about driving an early Nissan Leaf West to East across Maryland on vacation. I can tell you in 2012 that was an accomplishment.</div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkytWq1qy9M" target="_blank">PBS Electric Road Trip Movie</a></div>
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They are also great spokespeople for EVs. While the audience was only a of couple of people the group was enthusiastic and really knowledgeable about the new wider world of electric transport.</div>
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I got to show off my Tesla Model 3, but both a Nissan Leaf and Hyundai Ioniq were there too. I wish we were a bigger group but hopefully this will grow next year with better announcement. Jonathan did a presentation with a lot of behind the scenes details of his journey into electric driving. It was quite amusing as well as interesting. I gave Novia a test drive of the Model after the presentation.</div>
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I also got to see the Emmy they earned for their movie - very impressive.</div>
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Next September I invite you, consider attending or better yet volunteering for National Drive Electric Week. I think you will learn about many different electric options by next year.</div>
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D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-7448307894566656142018-09-21T19:31:00.002-07:002018-09-25T07:04:52.063-07:00Latest Bob Lutz 2018 inaccuracies analyzedBob Lutz 2018 on Tesla - debunked one piece at a time.<br />
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( With thanks to Rob Maurer at Tesla Daily Podcast (TDPC) 9/19/18, CNBC, Autoline After Hours & John McElroy, Jack Rickard, Sandy Munroe, Patrick C at Cars with Cords, IIHS, and Bob Lutz himself. )<br />
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First the September 2018 CNBC Quotes</h4>
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Lutz recently quoted by Maurer :<br />
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"They will never make money on the Model 3, because the cost is way too high. He's (Musk) got 9000 people in that assembly plant producing less than 150,000 cars a year. The whole thing just doesn't compute. It's an automobile company that is headed for the graveyard." (RM TDPC quoting Lutz 2018)<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3SlXawMx6kU/W6o_LJWmSiI/AAAAAAAAGL0/WitlJgMYHIQ2RWn3aDV3srikLpW50qj0QCLcBGAs/s1600/Lutz.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="557" data-original-width="911" height="242" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3SlXawMx6kU/W6o_LJWmSiI/AAAAAAAAGL0/WitlJgMYHIQ2RWn3aDV3srikLpW50qj0QCLcBGAs/s400/Lutz.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">He's been cranky at Tesla for years - October 2015</td></tr>
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Maurer tears this 150,000 number apart nicely, which I'll document. Let's go deeper on the whole statement. I really want to tear this apart to show how this 'expert' statement is quite under analyzed.<br />
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So even using Lutz's inaccurate numbers let's get a ratio per car<br />
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Tesla Fremont factory - 150,000 / 9000 factory workers = 16.6 cars per factory worker.<br />
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GM Lordstown plant made 51,265 Cruzes in 2nd qtr 2017 so next annualize at the best rate:<br />
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GM Lordstown factory 205,060 / 5000 factory workers = 41 cars per US factory worker.<br />
( I can't find a number of employees at the plant but GM website says 2017 was a 250 million payroll. Guessing a average of $25 an hr that's 5000 workers before the 2017-2018 layoffs and slowdown. That's where I'm 'computing' an employee estimate. )<br />
<a href="https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/company_info/facilities/assembly/lordstown.html" target="_blank">https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/company_info/facilities/assembly/lordstown.html</a><br />
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So indeed if Bob's numbers were accurate (they are not), 16.6 cars per for Tesla seems a problem. Wait just a minute though. The GM Cruze sold for $17,800 including destination - let's spitball round that up to $20000 with a couple of thousand in options. Of course GM is sharing that with the dealer network by wholesale selling and dealer holdouts / incentives. The currently available lowest cost Tesla Model 3 starts at $49K. The performance is $79K. The 1st Qtr 2018 reported production from Tesla's Investor reports of 34,494 with 24,728 S and X models - considerable more expensive. Q2 2018 - 53,339 with 28,578 Model 3 and 24,761 S and X models. In other words a Tesla goes for a price 2.5 times the Cruze on the lowest model and Bob should be able read production reports like any adult. If I multiply 16.6 by 2.5 price adjustment I get *surprise* 41.5. Even that is low, we should correct much higher with S and X's selling at least 80,000 this year - 4 to 5 times the cost of a Cruze.<br />
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Let's also correct his numbers based just on published numbers that are at least 60 days old and assume no growth (though Bob Lutz should know these too). From Tesla's investor info above the 2018 first half production was 87,833. Double that and an annualized rate of 175,666 would lead to the least rounded estimate of 175,000. That's with no more growth and how likely is that? Still his estimate of 150,000 reeks of either setup or ignorance - neither is pretty. Where did the 25K go Mr. Lutz?<br />
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Now let's give it a reasonable ballpark if you've done your homework. Maurer's estimate is of the current annualized rate based on 3Q is 75,000 - that gives 300,000. Doubles the production rate in Lutz's estimate. Heck let's go easy and just look at overall 2018 - we are talking easily 235,000 cars this year. At that point his 2018 car per Tesla worker calculation goes from 16.6 to 26 cars per worker.<br />
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Did Lutz do BMW vs GM calculations based on cars per worker? No.<br />
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Let's go one further and compare overall company numbers:<br />
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Tesla overall - 235,000-300,000 / 30,000 Tesla employees = about 10 cars per worker.<br />
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GM sales for 2017 = 9.6 million.<br />
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<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/225326/amount-of-cars-sold-by-general-motors-worldwide/" target="_blank">https://www.statista.com/statistics/225326/amount-of-cars-sold-by-general-motors-worldwide/</a><br />
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From Bloomberg auto employee stats for GM<br />
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Giant GM 2017 9.6 million car / 180,000 workers. 53.3 cars per worker. Remember in this case we are counting the $3 an hour worker in Mexico but not the worldwide dealership employees - they are separate corporate entities from GM. I also don't have median wholesale price to contrast vehicles for cost or profit.<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DCdDBcCtmUA/W6V9AzzuykI/AAAAAAAAGLg/UhAkygtHBAY4KNKpaRF3oP4luyrK9tQNgCLcBGAs/s1600/Auto%2BEmployees%2BStats.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="544" data-original-width="636" height="273" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DCdDBcCtmUA/W6V9AzzuykI/AAAAAAAAGLg/UhAkygtHBAY4KNKpaRF3oP4luyrK9tQNgCLcBGAs/s320/Auto%2BEmployees%2BStats.png" width="320" /></a><br />
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I just don't think you can successfully get an apples to apples comparison with the worker / car metrics when one company is in sustainable solar energy and home battery backup, large scale industrial batteries, and high end electric cars. Plus Tesla does maintenance and delivery functions in house in the company vs separate dealer corporations.<br />
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"Tesla is hemorrhaging cash and due to SEC investigation is not able to raise the capital that they need." (RM TDPC quoting Lutz 2018)<br />
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Tesla's losses are clearly headed down this quarter, they have cash on hand, and their gross revenue is skyrocketing. Currently the Model 3 provides more revenue dollars than ANY other car model in US sales. I believe there is an excellent chance the final quarter this year will find the Model 3 in top 4 car makes (or better) in numbers too.<br />
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"Tesla has no tech advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage, no advantages whatsoever." (RM TDPC quoting Lutz 2018)<br />
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This really is annoying. All recent comparisons of driver assist have given the Model 3 top marks. Tesla makes all the new safety features like emergency braking available standard - who else does this? They are unifying software across their models on in house platform for navigation and car control. They have their huge suite of sensors and driving computer built in standard on every car. Updates such as improving your braking distance are done Over The Air (OTA) - no other manufacturer does this. Munroe US and at least one German automotive evaluation company have torn the cars apart and estimate they are profitable to make. The examinations of the TM3 battery pack are rating it the most advanced in the business. We have tons of stats showing Tesla batteries with the least degradation of all EV's out there (Teslanomics for more info and stats). As Rob Maurer points out on technology Bob Lutz previously predicted the gull wing doors would never work - ha. Lutz thinks his 'Destino' is cutting edge tech - but only if he can make people interested in ICE kit cars. Unproven so far as there no track record for that business I can find. In fact the only tech Tesla doesn't have is Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) because they are no longer the future.<br />
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Finally for the Lutz 'no tech in autonomy' opinion look at this August 2018 IIHS article at the bottom test result chart. The Model 3 is ahead of everyone, including older Teslas, and darned near perfect in the stats. I'd call that a tech lead and they are NOT giving away the code. Article here:<br />
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<a href="https://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/evaluating-autonomy-iihs-examines-driver-assistance-features-in-road-track-tests" target="_blank">IIHS.org Evaluating Autonomy...</a><br />
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If you want to listen to Rob's whole podcast please check him out on itunes or this Stitcher link.<br />
<a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/tesla-daily-tesla-news-analysis" target="_blank">https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/tesla-daily-tesla-news-analysis</a><br />
He has great counterpoints on all the above quotes and more.<br />
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Next rather than rehash Tesla's advantages I'll let Patrick C, blogger at Cars With Cords and panelist on youtube's The Tesla Life explain the Tesla advantages:<br />
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<a href="https://www.carswithcords.net/2018/03/moats-why-tesla-can-do-what-other-car.html" target="_blank">Cars With Cords / Moats - Why Tesla can do...</a><br />
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNMXmoTyxHeaHtd0MlHysdA" target="_blank">The Tesla Life</a><br />
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<h4>
Next the September 20th Autoline Quotes - Especially the Semi Quotes</h4>
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I want to add some of Bob Lutz's quotes from the Autoline After Hours show #436 9/20/18 on youtube. I believe this went much deeper than the short interviews and I'd like to quote it some.<br />
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At first Lutz discusses general car and truck info and seems generally knowable. Oddly he is not as into the details on the Destino as one would think he might be. He mentions he's 87 - I gotta say he looks good for that and converses well. Perhaps age has him stuck on his old positions, but it hasn't slowed down his wit and general knowledge. Clearly loves American muscle cars - which I can't fault. He also acknowledges electric hybrids for racing - for obvious four wheel and 0-60 reasons.<br />
He bemoans the end of vehicle ownership.<br />
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VLF - Destino is now instead a Hummer custom producer. He says low flow production will be there for Middle East and China first. I interpret that as nothing happening now and original Fisker model is dead. Not a lot coming from startup business from a Tesla critic. Lutz admits the Tesla design language is compelling aside from being electric. Loves Franz von Holzhausen (so say we all...). Then they all agree Tesla is a disaster as a business. Then Lutz talks about all the future competitors to Tesla - several cases of which John McElroy tears apart. He admits Teslas have a big margin, but claims the competition will come in lower using ICE to undersell Tesla. He admits to Tesla mindshare but then claims 200,000 cars a year is too tiny. However he just got finished calling that rate 150,000 for CNBC. This really tells me there is some sandbagging for the CNBC 150,000 / 9000 ratio going on. A couple phone calls answered. He makes a case that the Germans are running on rep and that some new Caddies and Lincolns are better but can't compete on exclusivity. Lutz also seems to see his Tesla shtick is fading so he again gets into how sad the loss of the real fans of cars are.<br />
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More reminiscing, then back to Tesla. The question is who should acquire Tesla given it's business model is problematic (?) Here we go with again - the quote from Lutz - "I don't know, but, would anybody? The only thing, that they have no technology that nobody else has. Absolutely no technological advantage, not in autonomy, not in batteries, not in control systems, it's just an electric car like everybody else." shtick. John M counters with the Munroe teardown and once again Lutz kinda mumbles. Now we lose sound. Then we are back to reminiscing about Hummers etc.<br />
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Mind you that quote was right after Lutz admits how compelling the style and design of Franz von Holzhausen is. Countering the rest of the repeated negative points is spread across this whole article.<br />
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Finally because of the tech issues they go over the buying Tesla question again. Henry Payne asks "So Bob, If Tesla's not a viable business proposition on it's own, then, who should buy it?" . Lutz repeats his theme response: "Well ah, First of all you have to ask the counter question 'Why would anyone (buy Tesla)'. and ah.. The only answer I can see is ah.. you'd buy it for the name and reputation. Because I don't think there's any battery technology or autonomous vehicle technology that isn't basically available to everybody else. ah.. So my guess is, if someone were to buy it, it would be to acquire a very valuable brand. Ah.. Would it be GM or Ford? - I doubt that very much. Could be one of the Europeans. Could be an Asian producer. Could be a Chinese producer wanting own a very very powerful and legitimate brand. Or it could even be somebody not in the automotive business like a Google or an Apple or one of the Chinese electronics companies. But that would have the problem that once again it would remain a small car company not embedded in a larger automobile company where you've got shared engineering and shared fixed costs. So it would remain a small vulnerable producer. And, the ownership would be in the hands of people who don't understand the car business, which you know, is always a problem."<br />
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John M then asks what he thinks of Powerwalls, Solar City(SC), and the Semi. Lutz then puts down Powerwalls and Solar City/Tesla Solar and calls them "A flop.". He says less than two dozen Americans have Power Walls beside Tesla executives.<br />
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I resent that because I own a PowerWall 2 and Tesla Solar and I like it very much and have many other friends with these systems. Yes there are many cheaper solar systems out there but I'm very impressed with the tech in mine acting as both home electric generation and seamless UPS. So again Bob Lutz disparages without presenting facts or stats. I'd love to see them.<br />
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Also it's well documented that the battery business is much more than residential. Here's Tesla's Australia 55 million dollar system making 16 million in revenue in 6 months. A flop eh?<br />
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<a href="https://electrek.co/2018/09/24/tesla-powerpack-battery-australia-cost-revenue/" target="_blank">Tesla powerpack battery australia...</a><br />
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Then about the Tesla semis then Lutz says quote: "As for the Electric Semi, I think both of those were push mobiles. You know they were elaborate things made out of a wood framework with ah plaster of paris troweled on them. Ah... First of all the total Semi market in the States is so tiny annually that even if you dominated it you're not talking very much volume and secondly every semi manufacturer whether it's Freightliner, (Daimler), Volvo, etc and even Cummins is coming out with a fully electric drivetrain for heavy trucks." (Snip long verbiage saying this is a small and competitive business) " Most Fleet owners tend to stay with the same brand." (Snip - he goes on and moves into issues with Elon with etc. - I find this area subjective and covered above so I'll skip.)<br />
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Now I'm frosted again! The semi's are not clay or plaster models. Or course they are prototypes but clearly they are practical enough to drive around the country to and from possible customers. Lutz has to know this if he is at all following electrics. So either he is woefully ignorant of the news on electric freight in the past year and therefore does not know what he is talking about, or he is deliberately false about these development semis. Dozens of articles are documenting months of the Tesla semis crossing the country. Google Electrek and Tesla Semi - it's not hard.<br />
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Personally my **guess**, not even having a car background is: Tesla took off the shelf items like axles, suspension, truck wheels, air brakes, etc components. Weld a pair of custom frames and add 2-4 Model 3 battery sleds, high end Model 3 computers, Model 3 steering actuators, and a Model 3 RWD motor for each of 4 of the 6 double wheels. Now add Model 3 AC/Heating steering and screen with custom longer wiring harness again totally based on Model 3 with software tweeks. Add trailer hitch components and lighting/trailer brake hook ups. Finally get some sheet metal guys to make an aerodynamic lightweight body and seating. Lutz the secret sauce is the Model 3 components! The reason Daimler says it can't work is because they, like Lutz is clueless as to how advanced the Model 3 components are. How by pumping out of a giant factory they are becoming the world's most advanced battery sleds at commodity scale and pricing - to Tesla only of course. Why build a special pack? When your off the shelf one in a group can be ganged up to do the job? If you read my previous blogs you know my estimate for the advanced 75 kwh pack in the next two years falls to $10k wholesale within Tesla. $40K for a 300kwh battery with lighting recharge by ganging up 4 Supercharger cords. Not only will it be easy to build 'Truck Superchargers' with your present tech but in a emergency regular SuperCharger stations would be an option.<br />
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Does no one have any imagination as to how Tesla would leverage its advantages? Yes they open source their patents but this doesn't give anyone their copyrighted software or manufacturing trade secrets. Just because they are new to trucking is it impossible to add an employee or two with truck experience?<br />
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Tesla's 'secret' is they are light years ahead on the battery sled and powerful computer controls - ask battery/electronic expert Jack Rickard and Munroe Automotive.<br />
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7GR5fERXNY" target="_blank">Rickard on Model 3 Battery Tech</a><br />
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<a href="http://evtv.me/2018/05/tesla-model-3-gone-battshit/" target="_blank">Rickard blog - Tesla model 3 gone battshit</a><br />
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So what's left - yes Tesla may be learning how to build bigger frames and suspensions. Differences in steering, braking, suspension software on a big rig. Reusing all the base software components and refactoring for the new size and physics. A lot of which they have been modeling on a smaller scale for years with their own tools - call it the 'Tesla OS' advantage. Trailer hookups.<br />
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You know what isn't an advantage is the new semi business? Diesel motors. Mufflers. 20 gear transmissions. Clutches, Diesel tanks, filters, injectors, etc. Time for a whole generation of employed experts to start drawing early pensions.<br />
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So let's look at the next failure of imagination as usual. Lutz in so many words says the market for semi's is small. I would respond that your highest costs are diesel and drivers - not big rigs. The company that cuts your fuel cost in half and allows one driver to lead a fleet of 4 semis across the country using *todays* autonomous highway software with a few tweeks - is Tesla. With that level of advantage you don't just replace this year's worn out semi.<br />
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You replace them all. With your already developed, very advanced electric tech.<br />
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Even if I disagree with Lutz - and believe me I do, this show is worth watching. The final diatribe starts at 1:22:15 and the sad part is Lutz is a very convincing, well spoken guy - perhaps the advantages we Tesla owners see won't be enough and he'll be right. My money's on Tesla. Get the full answers and context and check it out for yourself:<br />
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ssnme93y3o" target="_blank">Autoline AfterHours Lutz interview</a><br />
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Autoline Afterhours is also where you can find Sandy Munroe's analysis of Tesla's computer and battery advantages - I leave finding these as an exercise for the reader.<br />
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Enjoy!<br />
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-35329627213296792322018-09-20T09:18:00.001-07:002018-09-20T09:19:28.907-07:00National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 5 stars Model 3Short update. The argument for Tesla as one of the safest cars just got better - * 5 stars * all around from NHTSA. And they even missed the Model 3 has a great backup cam. Here's a screenshot:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ef-34uj1sBY/W6PHF8ZuH8I/AAAAAAAAGLE/5ELCLlIh0hcLP3w821Pi_nholKNd2qCvQCLcBGAs/s1600/Compare.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="1040" height="360" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ef-34uj1sBY/W6PHF8ZuH8I/AAAAAAAAGLE/5ELCLlIh0hcLP3w821Pi_nholKNd2qCvQCLcBGAs/s640/Compare.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The side impact is especially impressive. Should be interesting to compare what the IIHS Insurance Institute for Highway Safety comes up with as a final rating. Stay tuned.</div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-I_ui-FxOiK8/W6PILLY_GtI/AAAAAAAAGLQ/G9AGZmfFOIgAhfhN8sRWEWXB96GJ_y85gCLcBGAs/s1600/sideimpEV.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="710" height="368" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-I_ui-FxOiK8/W6PILLY_GtI/AAAAAAAAGLQ/G9AGZmfFOIgAhfhN8sRWEWXB96GJ_y85gCLcBGAs/s640/sideimpEV.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4861549668694443217.post-39333096322079153462018-08-14T06:21:00.001-07:002018-08-16T11:02:26.955-07:00Batteries - Why pick Tesla?So in an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle you have engine, fueling, and engine support (cooling, emissions/muffler) that are all critical to the functioning car. Of course chassis, suspension, braking, safety are there but those are common to all car types.<br />
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Electrical vehicles (EVs) critical components are Motor, batteries, and electrical support (charge/regen/distribute electronics and computer control). Unlike an engine replacement in an ICE I'd argue a motor replacement in a decently designed EV is relatively plug and play. Not so for most EV batteries - they are large, heavy, and arguably your most expensive component needing replacement in old age.<br />
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Having watched my battery range drop in the Nissan Leaf was brutal as an owner. Having watched 'Who Killed The Electric Car' ands it's EV1 crushing scenes I wanted to own not lease. However my 70 mile range turned into 35 - at best, over six years. My EV was becoming a doorstop. I really want my future EV batteries to degrade as little as possible. BTW Nissan has supposedly improved Leaf battery chemistry, but they still do not thermally condition your battery.<br />
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2CaWaKjS1Y" target="_blank">Teslanomics - Tesla batteries last forever</a><br />
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So I've picked Tesla at a higher purchase cost. For one thing Tesla has battery fine tuning on it's charging - not just an 80/100 setting like my Leaf. Charging to absolutely full is one battery wear factor that proven to degrade most lithium storage. Multiply the wear if it is hot and by the amount of time the battery sits at 100%. Tesla lets you set daily charging to any value. Experts in Tesla charging say 70% is an order of magnitude less degradation as a charging level. So my rules are:<br />
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1. When at home, it's plugged to allow the thermal management to keep the battery temperature just where it should be even in my hot driveway in summer. Easy.<br />
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2. For daily use, I set charging via my phone to 70% percent - 220 miles of possible 310 with my long range battery. Trust me this is plenty on 9 out of 10 days.<br />
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3. Trip or long range days I set the timer to begin charging to 100% at a time that will let me leave immediately after filling the battery - minimizing time spent at full charge. Another nice Tesla 'fine tuning' charge feature.<br />
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These rules I hope will make the TM3 my 'forever' car barring accident.<br />
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My ace in the hole - the TM3 battery warranty. 120,000 miles 8 years of at least 70% of new range. I know Tesla guaranteeing this in the LR battery for every owner (when many will not take the trouble to carefully charge) means they are confident in the TM3 packs ability to have low wear - which is backed up by the battery range loss stats in the youtube link above. Worst case in eight years I have a standard range TM3 but I believe based on my research at better than 90% range in ten years.<br />
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Battery sourcing, composition, and recycling</h4>
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My research shows Tesla has really gone the distance to make the Model 3 pack the most advanced and environmentally friendly in the world. My grandkids may be using the pack in whole house backup and solar time shifting long after I'm gone. Tesla is committed to end of life recycling as well. As for manufacture the only rare earth - Cobalt in the battery has been reduced to less than 3 percent vs 20 percent in others. Here's the major components in the battery pack:<br />
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NCA Chemistry in new Tesla Model 3 batteries:<br />
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<span style="font-size: 15.4px;">Cobalt by weight in battery - 10.6 lb / 4.5 kg see:</span></div>
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<a href="http://benchmarkminerals.com/panasonic-reduces-teslas-cobalt-consumption-by-60-in-6-years/" style="color: #8b8b8b; text-decoration-line: none;">http://benchmarkminerals.com/panasonic-reduces-teslas-cobalt-consumption-by-60-in-6-years/</a></div>
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Lithium by weight in battery - still unknown. My (Glotfelty) 2012 Leaf was 6 lbs per 24kwh so a round guess 20 lbs or less? Contrary to BS by the oil shills, lithium is plentiful and can be mined economically, ethically, and environmentally soundly. See previous entries. </div>
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Graphite, Aluminum, Nickel, Steel, Copper, Plastic - all plentiful.<br />
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Just in case someone is selling you FUD on batteries so they keep you breathing exhaust, baking your world, and drowning you in ever more expensive oil and gasoline.<br />
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Finally - a real world example of Tesla excellent battery durability:<br />
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<a href="https://insideevs.com/model-x-300000-miles-2-years/" target="_blank">Model-X-300000-miles-2-years</a><br />
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D G Leafhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03699038894854492764noreply@blogger.com0