A bursting bubble? - Hydrogen

Hydrogen - the mirage,

I'm beginning to see the conservative news machine and astroturf bloggers winding up for a go at electric cars. This makes sense as Big Oil needs to squeeze maximum dollars out of vast holdings that require fracking and pollution intensive methods for recovery.  Regardless of US security interests, world climate, etc. One of the darlings of this group is the hydrogen car. It is held out as 'the answer'. Why not - when it combines hydrogen and oxygen in a fuel cell - what do you get - good old safe non polluting water and electricity to power a vehicle.

That model also excites gas companies - liquid hydrogen can't be produced on your roof with solar cells or wind in the backyard. Electric utilities don't find it competing with their baseline load production like home solar and wind. Stations will just offer regular, unleaded, and liquid hydrogen. Centralized with the big companies selling the consumer 'what they need'. Taxed by the cold pint of course so legislators and oilmen turned politcos are just drooling at this well understood road revenue source.

My good workout friend Larry pointed out a desert solar plant for making liquid hydrogen. I'll grant you this is a positive - hydrogen cracking because the electrical cost to produce chilled compressed hydrogen from water doesn't make sense from an electric cost, but a giant desert solar source going to waste due to transmission costs. That works. You can truck it out on a hydrogen big rig - ok thats fair if you solve all issues with hydrogen storage. The energy density is nowhere near gas or lithium air. Still might work, uses seawater and desert, and very low enviro impact with no CO2 - which is great.

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2013/08/02/free-energy-water-splitting-technology-sunlight-mirrors-and-seawater/

The overall efficiency of producing, compressing, and using the hydrogen in a fuel cell is 46.9%.  This is not much greater than the 40% efficiency of the Prius hybrid and well below the efficiency of a diesel hybrid.  Researchers at Massachusetts Institute Of Technology (MIT) have reported that diesel with hybrid is more green than hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. So this hydrogen production is best done at some kind of desert area where solar is wasted. Of course there are the various maintenance costs for the plant but still this is promising.

The physics for hydrogen make for a tough case for anything not zeppelin or big rig size. Huge tank and safety armor required. That's not optimum real world implementation - that's basic physics of hydrogen. To quote Elon Musk whose SpaceX runs resupply vehicles to dock with the International Space Station:

“You could take best case of a fuel cell, theoretically the best case, and it does not compete with lithium-ion cells today. And lithium-ion cells are far from their optimum.”


A pessimistic link:

http://www.triplepundit.com/2010/02/hydrogen-is-not-the-fuel-of-the-future/toyota-to-sell-50000-hydrogen-car-in-u-s-by-2015/

Check out this video from Fully Charged about fuel cells - interesting and partly positive:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3PkgUcI4Z8

Some other sources on the problems with hydrogen:
http://www.triplepundit.com/2010/02/hydrogen-is-not-the-fuel-of-the-future/
http://www.dvice.com/archives/2008/07/shift_hydrogen.php
http://www.dalefield.com/slspartners/hydrogen_fm.html

On balance I'd say economical hydrogen without an increase in CO2 is going to take renewable non CO2 energy as in Larry's link to the seacoast desert solar plant, combined with hydrogen powered transport rigs. For use in large vehicles due to the tank size and corrosive maintenance involved with hydrogen. I don't see it in normal vehicles any time soon. Perhaps a Hummer? - which could please conservatives and monster truck enthusiasts alike.

Robert Llwellen in the Honda FCX *Video*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYYR_wG-x_E

Don't get me wrong - I applaud Toyota saying they will have 50 to 100K dollar consumer hydrogen vehicles by 2015. I am a skeptic though and I'm curious if their rollout beats Tesla's consumer model 40K dollar family car.  Combined with minimal cargo space, fuel costs greater then gas, and immense maintenance issues will Toyota's new offering stand up to Tesla's battery powered one?

Even more reading:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2009/02/17/203695/hydrogen-fuel-cell-wont-work-impractical-la-times-dan-neil/
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2008/09/12/203088/the-car-of-the-perpetual-future-the-economist-agrees-with-climate-progress-on-hydrogen/
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2008/06/19/202799/hydrogen-fuel-cell-honda-fcx-clarity-problems/

http://insideevs.com/has-tesla-killed-the-fuel-cell-vehicle/

Wild July

Well the dam is breaking. At various electric clubs I'm seeing in the flesh:

C-Energy Plug in Hybrids,
A Ford Focus EV,
Honda Fit EV,
The Prius plugin - although vastly outnumbered by regular hybrid Priusi.

Several of each of the usual suspects:
Leafs,
Teslas - Coupe and Model S,
Volts, and
Thinks...

I've driven a Smart EV coming in October for sale and these models are in the pipeline:

BMW I3 next year - about 42K and an option for range extension,
Chevy Spark,
and a Kia model that I guess will have sparking hamsters commercials.

Given the numbers compared with hybrid adoption we are WAY ahead even if the Presidents one million in 2015 still looks optimistic. Still Nissan/Renault alone is already at 100K EV's sold in 2013. Not too shabby. As usual the naysayers and oil shills are out in force. Still it appears the lower prices, electric efficiency, and fair carbon comparisons are finally carrying the day for a segment of the market.

Eighteen Months and Twenty Two Thousand Leaf Miles

Well a year and a half and 22,000 gas free miles. The Leaf has been relatively trouble free but for a squirrel infestation that Nissan fixed for free. No lost bars of capacity. Friends in the area have gone 35k without loss but one at 31K has lost one bar in twelve so it will be coming.

My goal with 3.5 years left to pay is enough battery for round trip work and then saving when its paid off for battery replacement. I need 50 in winter and I'd say with heated seats and defrost as needed my lowest is about 65 - never having turtled. This is having done two winters. So if I lose two bars of twelve by payoff I'm still estimating 53 and a small safety margin. Not to mention I may retire by then.

With my lead foot even in my old Honda Hybrid that 22k miles would have cost 600 gallons of gas - she was only getting about true 35 mph at 10 years old. (Started at 45 mph when she was young in 2003) Still that car was a cost winner for me even when the catalytic converter went for the second time and she was retired. Overall definitely a winner with a 5k break, reduced sales tax and great mileage. The Leaf is in a whole new category though - even waiting in line at full MRSP which no one has to do today... Let's break it down:

I get free electric. Eco-landlord is a terrific guy. We'll break it down both ways for those not lucky enough to use the sun for power... Lets look at the five year picture.

My costs over five years and 75k miles. Insurance and registration is a wash as driving affects it more then car type.

-------------------------------
$40,000.00 with loan interest tags--> $39000 - Loaded 2012 SL - at 1.79% $665 or about $7975 a year
$100.00                       - Five tire rotations - could of got them free but I like visiting Bowie Nissan.
$20.00                        - My real electric cost - my two cards for charging - one has been billed $2 so far.
$35.00                        - Joining the electric car club
$350.00                      - Upgrading my charger to 240/120 vs 120v.
$540.00                      - A year and a half electric ** If I paid for it - we'll add it for fun ***
$1200.00                    - Three and a half more with a little inflation
$200.00                      - Add a brake pad job - generally half as often just like the Honda hybrid
$460.00                      - One set of tires
-----------------------------
  $43,000.00

 -$7,500.00 my Fed rebate!  ( Not to mention MD sales tax breaks which I won't get into here )
------------------------------
$35,500 across 5 years and my new total yearly cost while paying it off was $7500.  After that it just insurance, brakes, tires and sunshine -if I'm ok if 50 mile real world winter range in retirement.  If not a replacement for around 5-10K depend on improvements and scale in batteries.  Electric motors can conservatively run trouble free for 20-50 years!

Try that with an ice car:

$25,000 - Nicely appointed Internal Combustion Engine econobox - nav system realw 30mpg 0 finance
$  1,500 - MD tax
$    460  - tires
$    400  - two brake jobs
$    100  - five tire rotations
$    450  - 15 oil changes @ $30 each
$    100  -  radiator flush & fill.
$      75  -  five MD emissions test - skip charge for the $15000 cat converter replace I needed at 80k
$10,000 -  2500 gallons of gas at real world 30 mph ( 36 minus your lead foot over 55mph )
-------------
$38,000

I have a trouble free commuter with winter range around low 50's worst case.  And I'm $2500 to the good towards a new battary if we compare.  The ICE owner is well getting ready to buy another five years of oil and gas.

Finally in the 2013 year Nissan has the same cool battery,better body, and electric motor but missing gadgets and nav system for:

$28,800 - the S model.  Or lease for $199.

Next the real reason I have a Leaf - nothing to do with cost, better ride, or easy maintenance.



Here's an even more economical ride - but the world is not quite ready for the Th!nk I'm afraid.

Still the Think at 9 months has a respectable 2k miles on it and has been a delight as well.......

The Merry Month of May

May 2013 has been a very good Electric Car Month, in general and personally.

First Tesla paid off their loans and destroyed the anti electric investors who have been shorting their stock with a squeeze that got them where they worship - their wallets. Couldn't happen to a better group. Tesla also announced expansion of their free to S owners super charger network. The first quarter of 2013 they sold 5,000 cars which isn't bad for a 65-85K vehicle.

I myself at 17 months put 20k+ on my Leaf. My Leaf continues to give me a reliable perfect ride.  All bars still good on the battery. Here's a screenshot:

She still zips off the line. Electric cost total for 17months = $527.  About 2.75 cents a mile 'fuel' cost.  The Davidson's Leaf is charged to full every time, is well over 30k and no battery loss showing on the gauge yet. Very encouraging as I hope to replace my batteries sometime after my 5 year loan for the car is up - and of course later is better. I plan to start saving right after the loan payoff though.

Speaking of that the 28800 MSRP on the less gizmoed Leaf S seems to helping sales to records in the last months of into May.  May was 2138 cars - the 2nd best. Take 7,500 fed tax rebate off that 28800,  add destination & tags and you are around $22,500. Finally for the faint of heart a lease deal at $199 also should keep the Leafs humming!

Last but not least the Electric Sociability Run sponsored by MDVolt at:
http://www.meetup.com/MDVolt/ with participation by EVA/DC and many sponsors.  Here is the website for the Run:
http://www.pluginrally.org/

What a great time - Kevin drove the Th!nk Electric - the second electric car in the family.  It gets charged slowly by a 120 volt Clipper creek trickle charger. Here is a photo at the picnic after:

It performed very well, we caught an extra hours charge in Bethesda at Mike and Christa's who are helpful Leaf owners and got back with plenty to spare. The big news was Kevin and I each had a prize ticket and Kevin is holding a new 240Volt 50 amp GE watt station in this next photo.

Thanks to the generous sponsors and the fun picnic/run organizers. What a great day for Electric Vehicles - here was the attendance count from Lanny:

2013 Sociability Run EV List:

12 Tesla Model S
11 Chevy Volt
8 Nissan Leaf
3 Tesla Roadster
3 Ford Focus EV
3 Zero S
2 Think City
2 OT ELF
1 Ford Fusion Energi
1 Ford C-Max Energi
1 BMW Z3 Electric
1 Porsche 914 Electric

48 Total

I would guess they are behind the 54 or so back in 1914, but that just gives us something to shoot for on the 100th run next year! Here folks and the electric bikers were awaiting pictures...

Many more pictures are up at the links above.

So if you are on the fence, consider joining us with a lease. Trade in some old thing for the 2k down and enjoy enough savings to pay for the lease - not to mention the fun you will have coming to the various electric events all over the area.

The Leaf and Earth day

So I've been pretty positive about various electric cars. For this earth day though, my favorite is still the Leaf.  Especially the 2013 Leaf S.

My 2012 Leaf has 18,000 miles, no battery degradation and plenty of zip. Almost 18 months driving and last 12 with a 50 mile commute.

Now imagine the same car body, motor, batteries, and a roomier hatchback.

Less fun electronics, fast charge port only optional as well as the 2013 level 2 speed increase for charging.

Still a 29k car that is 22k after federal rebate?  Mine was 32k after rebate. Great lease deals. The base 2013 Leaf is the most amazing commuter tool ever. Saves me $150 in gas a month. The base has a radio instead of Nav system but again not a problem in a commuter. Heck if you have 30 mile or less commute I survived on the 120v trickle charger for my first six months.

I hear 'Tesla is awesome'.  True but only for the 65k demographic. I like the Focus, The Think, The Volt. I still think the Leaf is your Earth Day choice. I hear complaints about the style, but to me all gas cars are so so - I'd rather have a clean, super peppy off the stop light, and no gas electric! Easily as pretty as a Prius - I think car beauty is skin deep. Electric beauty is in the bones!

So this Earth Day - take a spin in a Leaf at a dealer - or ask me. It's the no gas option that will help us save the Earth.  Having fun the whole way.

P.S. My Red Leaf next to a Tesla - admittedly the Tesla IS nice - grin.

Happy Birthday Electric Detectives

One year of Electric Detectives - 30 entries.  15 months with electric cars.

Don't break out the bubbly for battery cars yet - still looks uphill.

A reasonable start - hopefully I'll find more subjects for posts this year.

DG "Dave" Leaf

More FUD from EV critics my friends

Critics are trying to use Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt - F.U.D.

For example - in the NY Times car section a reporter claims a Tesla S can't make a run to Boston.

In the blogosphere there are lot's of ways to make money. I've put up youtube whale videos in the hope of making a few bucks - my cousin made quite a bit after posting a grouper feeding video. No luck there but hey it's worth a try. I understand people trying to make a living off the net.

I have not monetized or put ads on this blog because I think it's very important to understand motives in the EV world. I see many posters that I believe benefit from entrenched industry. After all the net is a huge influence on opinion and 20k spread among 4 commenters for say 2 hours of work a week for a year is peanuts compared to paid ads. Anonymous too, so big oil or the repair industry can make EV's look impractical without leaving a paper trail. So everywhere you see the snide naysayer - often quite rabid in their remarks - generally never having owned an EV.

So when I'm telling you about how the EV has worked well for myself and my son - it's all from a desire to keep our climate sane, our air clean, and our dollars out of the oil cartels. That I save a bundle is cool too.

Now there are also folks on their own that believe EV's are bad - but many have been sold a bill of goods by Fox, conservative 'think tank' fronts, and the conservative PR business. Which is sad because fiscal restraint and individual responsibility are good things but somehow the GOP has let it itself be led by extremists, big oil, and the 1% into the wrong alley. You don't have be on the left to want clean water and a decent climate for your kids.

So first when the newspapers (which carry adverts for car repair and gas) have a car 'reporter' drive around in circles to run an EV out of juice - it is suspect. How is it that Dave - D G Leaf can drive his car 15k in year and not run out - all while having a 120v/240v charger with extension cord in the back of his car if I did. I have not - not once. I'm no car genius either. I make sure my map is up to date and keep apps to help locate chargers at the ready.

When you hear the FUD remember that people are afraid - afraid for their repair business. Afraid for the public waking up about the climate and climbing out of the lobster pot they are slow cooking in for the profits of oil and gas speculation.

I can tell you - if you have a gas car in the family that you can keep, an EV can be practical and fun as your second car. It's affordable and unless you are in an apartment with no charge options easy to charge. That's all we need to sell - to that market for the second family car. Then economies of scale kick in. What Tesla sells now for luxury price becomes commonplace.  Range and cost improve yearly.

It's coming - don't believe the FUD. If I can do it - so can you, and for much less money then I did.

Finally for those that are just too worried - try a spin in a Volt sometime. All the bennies of electric miles with the reassurance of a backup gas capability.