Warning - I'm taking these numbers from an Electrek article and they seem an order of magnitude high compared to Jack Ricard. I tend to trust Ricard so I'm looking for issues with my math -be forewarned!
28,000 Tons - That's your lithium needs at Tesla's (Gigafactory) GF 1 in Sparks Nevada if they get to full blast production. This allows them to produce their target of 35 GWH of battery storage a year. So each Gigawatt hour of storage requires 800 tons of Lithium hydroxide if Electrek is on target.
Reference 1:
Electrek.co Tesla-lithium-supply-agreement-china-producer-batteries
( Electrek quote: "If Gigafactory 1 reaches its goal of 35 GWh of battery cell production by the end of the year, it is estimated to need about 28,000 tons of lithium hydroxide per year." This is sourced from Bloomberg - quote "Tesla may need as much as 28,000 tons of lithium hydroxide a year from late next year based on battery output at its Nevada facility reaching the equivalent of 35 gigawatt hours, according to Benchmark Mineral’s forecasts. " )
Note the way the quotes above inflate so again a warning that my estimates using it looks high.
This last year 2018 GF1 produced 1.1 GWH of Powerpack and Powerwall storage. Tesla Fremont produced 245,240 (Electric Vehicles) EV's in 2018. So we can extrapolate GF1 car GWH by 245240 x 75kwh = 18.4 GWH or 19.5 GWH with energy products. So estimate GF1 is for 2018 running at 56 percent of their possible production. Again a round estimate at total car lithium is 18.4 x 800 tons = 14,720 tons of lithium in Tesla 2018 EVs.
As usual the bloviating paid for shills of oil are spinning this as environmentally worse than their smoking clanking infernal combustion machine production and oil to gasoline production costs.
Let's go with a back of the envelope calculation:
35,000,000,000 / 75+ KWH = 450,000 Model 3's at full blast if the Model 3 continues to sell. So basically all Fremont could handle. Sounds ballpark. For now let's work with 2018's production of 245,240 EV cars at 18.4GWH of Gigafactory 1 output requiring 14,720 tons of Lithium hydroxide.
Each US ton would .63 cubic meters and 14,720 tons stores in 9273.6 cubic meters - about 100' by 150' by 20' high warehouse room would store that. Two rooms for the GF1 at full blast to store a years worth of lithium hydroxide for electrolyte. About 200 tractor trailer loads a year - less than 2% of what a big container ship delivers. So when a you think of the Lithium Hydroxide in your battery on a TM3 be thankful for a 60 lb cube of the stuff 11 inches on a side that has been mixed with liquid to become electrolyte for 4416 individual battery cylinder cells.
Don't believe the hype that this is worse than say the rare earths in the multiple catalytic converters that a gas car requires over it's life. My Honda Civic at 180,000 miles took 2 replacements at $1300 each for a total of three during it's ten years of service with me.
14,720 x @$20,500 per ton = $302,000,000 in EV Lithium hydroxide cost a year or $1230 a 75kwh car.
https://www.globalxfunds.com/benchmark-what-drove-lithium-prices-in-december/
But wait that's 60 lbs of Lithium hydroxide - didn't we previously estimate Li content at tops 20 lbs for the Model 3's 75kwh 1050 lb battery sled? Remember anhydrous Lithium Hydroxide is three times the weight per mole of straight lithium - or about three times the weight for similar volume. So maybe our Li element weight is still ballpark if high. Remember also Elon's projection of $100 per kwh for raw batteries this year? So your sled in the Tesla Model 3 is basically the world's finest $10K magic carpet - $7500 batteries and $2500 (SWAG) in the integrated penthouse electronics.
Again - trying to see if our estimate continue to stay in the ballpark - Jack Rickard mentions an eyedropper full of electrolyte is all that's needed in a 2170 individual battery cell. That's about a half a milliliter in a standard prescription bottle. He mentions the electrolyte liquid is ethylene carbonate. So a guess would be 1 ml x 2208 = 2.2 liters per pack. 2.2 liters seems too low volumn to be the solvent of the electrolyte so I continue to find the numbers for Lithium Hydroxide high.
I'm going to continue to recheck and resource these numbers - as the lithium amounts and costs compared to Jack (a serious battery expert) seem high. Please feel free to comment on any errors you see. For the moment it's an upper bound as we look for better numbers.
Jack Rickards Latest in Depth Discussion of the Model 3 battery pack:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nhQw7iGukE
Monday, February 4, 2019
Wednesday, January 2, 2019
New Year and a New Tesla Model 3 owner
My son graduates in the spring with a four year degree in the arts and plenty of cinematography under his belt.
We wanted a present that would be both practical and amazing. So I pitched the base mid-range Tesla Model 3 to the ex with a cost split - a third apiece. We did that with the Think and it worked well and was paid off on a four year loan in his high school and part of college. The Think however, was not getting used for the last two years due a longer student commute. Plue his ICE clunker had an engine light on and the fed tax rebate was dropping away for good.
So add Xmas to the mix and here we are:
It should be noted an EV car costs about a third to operate vs gas - with the exception of tires. He'll go through a set every two years so I'm guessing put aside $400 a year plus $100 for the LTE streaming service after the first year. The idea being one third of a 40K car 5 year loan = $250 payments for him with mom and Dad taking each a third over five years. A deal a kid waiting tables or working tech support while looking for that good film job could swing, with a little thriftiness. With electric costing $400 a year vs $1600 in gas that alone is like a young man's $200 a month car but reliable, electric, and clean, with enough cargo space for small moves. He has no student loans.
We took basic black aero wheels mid range (260 mile), no automation software - 47,200 delivered. Maryland tax paid upfront and $7500 gifted from me up here in PA strings free. That gets the Mom & grad pair down in MD to the 40K loan plus the eventual fed rebate and possibly MD excise tax refunded. My third of the loan payments I simply account for as a gift to them of $3000 a year well inside Federal gift limits as was the $7500 in 2018. When the car is paid off Mom simply transfers it fully to son, MD is reasonable about parent title transfers.
Yeah it is over the top. This is the kid however who has made good grades, worked every summer and often works during school so as to not have to ask for much. He's the first to get a four year degree. My older very successful son has a solid 2 year AA degree and a fantastic job. Very proud of him as well. Still this four year degree is big deal to me. I never accomplished that...
The second part of why is Kevin has been with me to countless EV shows - just because he was interested in EV's and how they could reduce the carbon footprint and climate change. He showed people his Think and my Leaf at several DC Auto shows, EVA/DC and MD Volt meetups. He paid for his Think and used it right up to an curbing that put it out of operation just as his driving needs became longer range. He has solidly helped the EV cause and rather than struggling with check engine lights and oily repairs going nowhere this is a last present to help boost him into orbit as an adult.
Good luck son. We all are going to need it but at least you will have some fun on the way.
Love Dad
We wanted a present that would be both practical and amazing. So I pitched the base mid-range Tesla Model 3 to the ex with a cost split - a third apiece. We did that with the Think and it worked well and was paid off on a four year loan in his high school and part of college. The Think however, was not getting used for the last two years due a longer student commute. Plue his ICE clunker had an engine light on and the fed tax rebate was dropping away for good.
So add Xmas to the mix and here we are:
It should be noted an EV car costs about a third to operate vs gas - with the exception of tires. He'll go through a set every two years so I'm guessing put aside $400 a year plus $100 for the LTE streaming service after the first year. The idea being one third of a 40K car 5 year loan = $250 payments for him with mom and Dad taking each a third over five years. A deal a kid waiting tables or working tech support while looking for that good film job could swing, with a little thriftiness. With electric costing $400 a year vs $1600 in gas that alone is like a young man's $200 a month car but reliable, electric, and clean, with enough cargo space for small moves. He has no student loans.
We took basic black aero wheels mid range (260 mile), no automation software - 47,200 delivered. Maryland tax paid upfront and $7500 gifted from me up here in PA strings free. That gets the Mom & grad pair down in MD to the 40K loan plus the eventual fed rebate and possibly MD excise tax refunded. My third of the loan payments I simply account for as a gift to them of $3000 a year well inside Federal gift limits as was the $7500 in 2018. When the car is paid off Mom simply transfers it fully to son, MD is reasonable about parent title transfers.
Yeah it is over the top. This is the kid however who has made good grades, worked every summer and often works during school so as to not have to ask for much. He's the first to get a four year degree. My older very successful son has a solid 2 year AA degree and a fantastic job. Very proud of him as well. Still this four year degree is big deal to me. I never accomplished that...
The second part of why is Kevin has been with me to countless EV shows - just because he was interested in EV's and how they could reduce the carbon footprint and climate change. He showed people his Think and my Leaf at several DC Auto shows, EVA/DC and MD Volt meetups. He paid for his Think and used it right up to an curbing that put it out of operation just as his driving needs became longer range. He has solidly helped the EV cause and rather than struggling with check engine lights and oily repairs going nowhere this is a last present to help boost him into orbit as an adult.
Good luck son. We all are going to need it but at least you will have some fun on the way.
Love Dad
Thursday, November 29, 2018
Lemur (L3MR) Time and end of the Full US tax credit on Friday Nov30 2018
Well Tesla has come out with the Medium Range (MR) model. Sadly at first they knocked off $4000 off the original LR RWD model price - which is gone. Now that's only $3000 off as they noted the demand. You still have to pay for a premium interior with glass roof. (which is quite nice BTW) Those people who said Elon would never make the base model appear at least for the moment to be right. This is just like mine except the battery range is 260 miles EPA and a curb weight of 3686 vs my LR RWD at 3814. One hundred and twenty eight pounds lighter presumably due to less battery weight.
Still for those wanting the US tax credit the base car is pretty much the cheapest things can get:
MR 3 in basic black with 18" aero rims delivery & doc - 47200
MD excise tax 2800
Tags 200
Total $50,200 - this is with no Enhanced Autopilot that you can add later.
Then a full tax refund early the next year.... about $43K - pretty good for a new Tesla.
(In Maryland excise tax deductions for electric appears depleted. Should be another $3000 if they get more funding in the summer 2019. So maybe $40K? in Maryland if they fund the program?
Tesla is only guaranteeing the full tax credit for orders placed through Friday Nov 30th because they have to deliver by Dec 31st to make the full tax credit. Orders delivered Jan 1, 2019 to June 30th will get half ($3750) when they file in 2020.
So order now kids for a $40K Tesla not counting your state tax. One day left !!!!
Here's my referral code so you can get free supercharging for six months on top of that:
http://ts.la/david901
Still for those wanting the US tax credit the base car is pretty much the cheapest things can get:
MR 3 in basic black with 18" aero rims delivery & doc - 47200
MD excise tax 2800
Tags 200
Total $50,200 - this is with no Enhanced Autopilot that you can add later.
Then a full tax refund early the next year.... about $43K - pretty good for a new Tesla.
(In Maryland excise tax deductions for electric appears depleted. Should be another $3000 if they get more funding in the summer 2019. So maybe $40K? in Maryland if they fund the program?
Tesla is only guaranteeing the full tax credit for orders placed through Friday Nov 30th because they have to deliver by Dec 31st to make the full tax credit. Orders delivered Jan 1, 2019 to June 30th will get half ($3750) when they file in 2020.
So order now kids for a $40K Tesla not counting your state tax. One day left !!!!
Here's my referral code so you can get free supercharging for six months on top of that:
http://ts.la/david901
Saturday, October 27, 2018
Tesla - US employees fighting for us all
Who is the largest manufacturer in the USA state of California. Tesla. After a four month Cal-OSHA investigation on safety, Tesla was found to have two minor safety reporting issues.
Tesla one-year-in-tesla-update
Remember the NPR/Reveal hit piece on Tesla safety? Tesla sources claimed it was a UAW + a disgruntled employee hit piece. Now I believe that unions have gained many victories for labor - but big unions simply have political agendas. Musk has held off the bad side of unionization by offering great security and rewards for his employees. Now he can offer tremendous safety benefits.
US Jobs, highly compensated and safer. Safest cars in the world.
Profitable company making the cleanest and safest cars in the world. Outcompeting all luxury cars and SUVs, competing (#4) in regular cars, a regular SUV just ahead, and a truck in the wings.
I am not a stock advisor and therefore can't give stock advice, but for me my long Tesla stock purchase is very satisfying. I own a piece of a company trying to save children. Your children. Our future. Not in a greenwash way but in a concrete here and now.
Tesla has many enemies - Oil and gas companies, the Koch brothers, the UAW, parts and maintenance shops, gas stations, auto dealers, and old line auto companies.
This is nothing less then a battle for the survival of our descendants and humankind.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
The hour seems dark before the US midterms. Foolish men think they can roll back the clock to a smoggy paradise run by the privileged.
Your choice doesn't have to be Tesla which is pricey. A used Volt for $12K can drop your gas use into the basement and involves no compromise. The Bolt is a good electric. If you drive only in the city or local a Leaf can meet short driving needs.
Join us.
Tesla one-year-in-tesla-update
Remember the NPR/Reveal hit piece on Tesla safety? Tesla sources claimed it was a UAW + a disgruntled employee hit piece. Now I believe that unions have gained many victories for labor - but big unions simply have political agendas. Musk has held off the bad side of unionization by offering great security and rewards for his employees. Now he can offer tremendous safety benefits.
US Jobs, highly compensated and safer. Safest cars in the world.
Profitable company making the cleanest and safest cars in the world. Outcompeting all luxury cars and SUVs, competing (#4) in regular cars, a regular SUV just ahead, and a truck in the wings.
I am not a stock advisor and therefore can't give stock advice, but for me my long Tesla stock purchase is very satisfying. I own a piece of a company trying to save children. Your children. Our future. Not in a greenwash way but in a concrete here and now.
Tesla has many enemies - Oil and gas companies, the Koch brothers, the UAW, parts and maintenance shops, gas stations, auto dealers, and old line auto companies.
This is nothing less then a battle for the survival of our descendants and humankind.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
The hour seems dark before the US midterms. Foolish men think they can roll back the clock to a smoggy paradise run by the privileged.
Your choice doesn't have to be Tesla which is pricey. A used Volt for $12K can drop your gas use into the basement and involves no compromise. The Bolt is a good electric. If you drive only in the city or local a Leaf can meet short driving needs.
Join us.
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
Climate Change - Does anyone have kids?
The dull look I get from 3/4 of people discussing global warming ( screw 'change') show the incredible crime the oil companies and their owners have purposefully committed. A new UN report details time is short by even human civilization's timespan - 22 years to make earth moving change. I believe one day this purposeful genocide will result in a very ugly justice to the fossil fuel barrons involved, their minions, political rulers that went along, and all their descendants. Look at the conservatives rough populist movement and then imagine them without food as the breadbasket of the US bakes in drought. This is in twenty years - not a century.
No amount of science seems to be able move people to leaders who will push renewable energy, carbon taxed economics, smaller families, and sustainable ecological practices. People just can't bring themselves to spend a little more for solar at home or an Electric Vehicle instead of a polluting diesel. One child instead of four. Instead we all paste pictures of our good looking descendents to Facebook. My young men won't be fifty before they are struggling for survival with their families.
Patton Oswalt sounds the alarm better than I:
https://twitter.com/pattonoswalt/status/1049529720503586816
I'm all for human space exploration and even colonization. However even with hundreds of years no other planet exists to make into a paradise - Mars may one day support colonies but it's improbable that it will approach Earth's habitability. So space is great insurance to guard against an asteroid and encouraging a spirit of exploration but don't kid yourself - science has no 'Planet B' for us for centuries if ever. Even a Science Fiction guy can tell you, the vast majority humankind's masses will always be dependent on the good Earth. We stand or fall here.
Apparently we have twenty years to get our shit together. The time for waiting, crying about the cost to business for survival, is over. Grab your pitchforks.
No amount of science seems to be able move people to leaders who will push renewable energy, carbon taxed economics, smaller families, and sustainable ecological practices. People just can't bring themselves to spend a little more for solar at home or an Electric Vehicle instead of a polluting diesel. One child instead of four. Instead we all paste pictures of our good looking descendents to Facebook. My young men won't be fifty before they are struggling for survival with their families.
Patton Oswalt sounds the alarm better than I:
https://twitter.com/pattonoswalt/status/1049529720503586816
Apparently we have twenty years to get our shit together. The time for waiting, crying about the cost to business for survival, is over. Grab your pitchforks.
Monday, October 8, 2018
A nice confirmation from NHTSA - SAFETY !
Hey where was the data on Tesla safety? After all this blog has been big on specs for everything else. I claimed that electrics in general are safer and they are. In particular my latest brand of EV - Tesla.
Basically NHTSA has given the Tesla Model 3 it's best crash rating ever by probability of injury. Electrek and Tesla have the figures below.
electrek.co tesla-model-3-lowest-probability-of-injury-nhtsa
Tesla - Model 3 lowest probability injury...
Now one thing about the best 50 cars NHSTA injury graph shown in the articles is the Y axis for percentage of injuries across the 50 best cars is blown up a bit ranging from best - Tesla Model 3 at ~5.8% up to ~ 8.1 % The mean of the worst 40 in the graph appears to be around 8%. These are the top performers but only Tesla in the top 3 positions for safety is broken out by name. Still a 25% reduction in injury over the pack of safest cars #11-50 is pretty impressive considering the first 3 of the ten are Tesla and then I would guess Volvo + some very high end cars for #4-10.
Now let's look at the figures from Tesla on crashes per mile.
Tesla q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report
Here's the meat:
So 1 (Tesla US) in 4 (All US) crashes for the same mileage. Cool eh? That's WITHOUT autopilot.
With autopilot that goes down further 1 Tesla crash vs 7 general crashes for the same miles driven.
Then if you are in a crash, injury rate is under 6% vs 8% for the safest cars as shown.
My choice of car is an Electric Vehicle rated best for safety on the planet. If my health was half as good.
Basically NHTSA has given the Tesla Model 3 it's best crash rating ever by probability of injury. Electrek and Tesla have the figures below.
electrek.co tesla-model-3-lowest-probability-of-injury-nhtsa
Tesla - Model 3 lowest probability injury...
Now one thing about the best 50 cars NHSTA injury graph shown in the articles is the Y axis for percentage of injuries across the 50 best cars is blown up a bit ranging from best - Tesla Model 3 at ~5.8% up to ~ 8.1 % The mean of the worst 40 in the graph appears to be around 8%. These are the top performers but only Tesla in the top 3 positions for safety is broken out by name. Still a 25% reduction in injury over the pack of safest cars #11-50 is pretty impressive considering the first 3 of the ten are Tesla and then I would guess Volvo + some very high end cars for #4-10.
Now let's look at the figures from Tesla on crashes per mile.
Tesla q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report
Here's the meat:
Here’s a look at the data we’re able to report for Q3:
- Over the past quarter, we’ve registered one accident or crash-like event for every 3.34 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged.
- For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles. While NHTSA’s data includes accidents that have occurred, our records include accidents as well as near misses (what we are calling crash-like events).
So 1 (Tesla US) in 4 (All US) crashes for the same mileage. Cool eh? That's WITHOUT autopilot.
With autopilot that goes down further 1 Tesla crash vs 7 general crashes for the same miles driven.
Then if you are in a crash, injury rate is under 6% vs 8% for the safest cars as shown.
My choice of car is an Electric Vehicle rated best for safety on the planet. If my health was half as good.
Monday, October 1, 2018
Slippery Tesla
Ok I purposefully made the title sound like a stock shorter's hit piece for a little excitement - I cheated there...
This one is about aerodynamics - which I find fascinating. Again recognizing my betters out there I'm going provide a link to an in depth video way better than my writing can inform you - but first a testimonial.
Many folks care little for efficiency. I care a great deal for it and Circe my Tesla Model 3 has delivered in spades. Having had a Leaf where I labored to get the watt hour per mile metric under 400 for five plus years I really appreciate the TM3 on efficiency these first 10k miles.
This one is about aerodynamics - which I find fascinating. Again recognizing my betters out there I'm going provide a link to an in depth video way better than my writing can inform you - but first a testimonial.
Many folks care little for efficiency. I care a great deal for it and Circe my Tesla Model 3 has delivered in spades. Having had a Leaf where I labored to get the watt hour per mile metric under 400 for five plus years I really appreciate the TM3 on efficiency these first 10k miles.
I know you can barely see it but my Trip B is for the whole 10K+ miles I have on the car over 6 months and three road trips - 260 wh/mile. Now I like to accelerate fast at least a couple of times per short trip in certain places and as needed on long highway trips. I'm also a steady driver during highway portions when I am not accelerating up to speed so my Trip B down to North Carolina shore - 259 wh/mile.
This is because Tesla has out engineered everyone on coefficient of drag - if you will recall from my statistics blog it's 0.23. That's up there with the slickest vehicles ever made. The hubcap/wheels are particularly amazing which is why when others cry about the aero's not looking like a metallic spider I grin and tell them they are the most beautiful wheels ever made. You can keep all the others.
These wheels in particular are very important for the critical band of 70-75 mph I like on the highway. The Leaf could run this easily but the efficiency dropped like a rock. Sadly I can't give you exact numbers but I can tell I still ran 300+ with a few miles to spare pushing that first leg of a road trip in the seventies and I love making that first supercharger with 3% and getting back that first half at 120kw Supercharging in 15 minutes for 160 miles of range or so. We had stopped for lunch and basically got a full charge but we could have easily pulled out after 20 minutes and made it home.
The whole body/chassis design of the Tesla Model 3 is basically this cleverly aerodynamic but you just don't know it. Yet beautiful too - anyone sees that. Well now you can learn in depth - check out this series of two videos by Youtuber Matt Shumaker at Tech Forum. The first is 23 minutes and the second is 12 minutes. Well worth your time on the fine details of auto aerodynamics and the Model 3:
Tech Forum is really worth a subscribe. I love that Matt mentions the old Honda Insight - a pioneer in efficiency. I really recommend his videos on Tesla. All in all it means I can drive faster and yet be in a fun car that performs way better than the first generation of electrics. So glad Tesla and Franz did such an incredible job!
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