Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Happy Birthday Electric Detectives

One year of Electric Detectives - 30 entries.  15 months with electric cars.

Don't break out the bubbly for battery cars yet - still looks uphill.

A reasonable start - hopefully I'll find more subjects for posts this year.

DG "Dave" Leaf

Sunday, March 10, 2013

More FUD from EV critics my friends

Critics are trying to use Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt - F.U.D.

For example - in the NY Times car section a reporter claims a Tesla S can't make a run to Boston.

In the blogosphere there are lot's of ways to make money. I've put up youtube whale videos in the hope of making a few bucks - my cousin made quite a bit after posting a grouper feeding video. No luck there but hey it's worth a try. I understand people trying to make a living off the net.

I have not monetized or put ads on this blog because I think it's very important to understand motives in the EV world. I see many posters that I believe benefit from entrenched industry. After all the net is a huge influence on opinion and 20k spread among 4 commenters for say 2 hours of work a week for a year is peanuts compared to paid ads. Anonymous too, so big oil or the repair industry can make EV's look impractical without leaving a paper trail. So everywhere you see the snide naysayer - often quite rabid in their remarks - generally never having owned an EV.

So when I'm telling you about how the EV has worked well for myself and my son - it's all from a desire to keep our climate sane, our air clean, and our dollars out of the oil cartels. That I save a bundle is cool too.

Now there are also folks on their own that believe EV's are bad - but many have been sold a bill of goods by Fox, conservative 'think tank' fronts, and the conservative PR business. Which is sad because fiscal restraint and individual responsibility are good things but somehow the GOP has let it itself be led by extremists, big oil, and the 1% into the wrong alley. You don't have be on the left to want clean water and a decent climate for your kids.

So first when the newspapers (which carry adverts for car repair and gas) have a car 'reporter' drive around in circles to run an EV out of juice - it is suspect. How is it that Dave - D G Leaf can drive his car 15k in year and not run out - all while having a 120v/240v charger with extension cord in the back of his car if I did. I have not - not once. I'm no car genius either. I make sure my map is up to date and keep apps to help locate chargers at the ready.

When you hear the FUD remember that people are afraid - afraid for their repair business. Afraid for the public waking up about the climate and climbing out of the lobster pot they are slow cooking in for the profits of oil and gas speculation.

I can tell you - if you have a gas car in the family that you can keep, an EV can be practical and fun as your second car. It's affordable and unless you are in an apartment with no charge options easy to charge. That's all we need to sell - to that market for the second family car. Then economies of scale kick in. What Tesla sells now for luxury price becomes commonplace.  Range and cost improve yearly.

It's coming - don't believe the FUD. If I can do it - so can you, and for much less money then I did.

Finally for those that are just too worried - try a spin in a Volt sometime. All the bennies of electric miles with the reassurance of a backup gas capability.

Sunday, March 3, 2013

4 of 4 - A summary for new 2013 models

Conclusion - The 2013 Leaf models - I'm very positive.

Having seen an 'S' model Leaf for $28,800 I'm jazzed at the new low price. That's my favorite.
When Kevin and I worked the DC Auto show we had a chance to see the S in person and I am just floored.

Why? The 'S' $28,800 MSRP

Nissan definitely tries to 'up sell' you.  There are things you will miss - cruise control and nav system. Chademo fast charging and the new faster charge system. Note though - my chademo 'fast' charger port is still a virgin after a year - no fast chargers yet in Maryland.  Here's the 'S' CD AM/FM stereo:



Keep your eyes on the prize though and what a winner it is.  24kwh battery with the same range as my 2012 or the older 2011.  That is about 75 miles three season driven normally with 65 on the highway.  Winter is definitely harder but even the S has heated seats and steering wheel - just like mine.  Your mileage on cold 20 degree days in Maryland will be more like 60.

Now that sounds small but I've found it to be quite adequate. Also when driven carefully I usually find I can eek out a bit more when I need to. I've never run out of juice in 15,500 miles and 15 months of use. For the first 6 months I ran with nothing but the 120v 19hr charger - which is still included. I'd get home at 5pm and plug in and most mornings leave fully charged. At that time I had a 26 mile work commute.

So if your family is looking for that second commuter car. A roomy fast electric could be perfect - consider in Maryland:

28800+850 dest+350 tags+title-dealer = $30k to take home + NO MD TAX.
Now if you pay at least $7500 a year in federal tax   $30,000 - $7,500 fed electric rebate = $22,500.

Now $22,500 is not too shabby for a family commuter that will cost you $30-$40 a month in electric and nothing in gas.

My 2012 plan is for a car that is paid off in 5 years and then get battery upgrades at 5 year intervals if needed for about 6k. At that point we're talking $100 a month for battery maintenance with the hope then battery tech continues to improve and no car payments as this vehicle will have a very long life.  Even with tires and brakes my yearly TCO will be unbelievable - imagine yours with a $22.5K car.

Plus the new liftback room is improved - mine had a hump - now 2013 it's open with fold down seats:


The interior is very roomy and comfy as evidenced by Kevin my 6 six foot son:


The 'S' is big step towards a family electric with no compromise with a great TCO.  Dropping the MSRP to $28800 is a fantastic move.

Now to be real, with all the improvements in electrics there is a second way. I've heard of lease deals for the 2013 SL ( top shiney model ) for 24 month lease at 3k down and $260 a month.  Given depreciation on E/Vs is heavy, if you are not planning on keeping it for a long time leasing is the way to go. Even with the down pay the gas saving will make this a good deal. Just remember the cheapest leases are 12000 mile per year and that isn't much. Check the mileage allowance carefully.

As I said though - I'm jazzed - these 2013 models answer the question of cost. This battle will continue to be down and dirty - big oil and their many mouthpieces are awake and dragging any threat though the mud. Nissan isn't asleep though - they have pushed 'all in'.  The Leaf has sold 50,000 world wide at the higher price point. Now Smyna TN is churning out batteries and Leaf cars made in America at ever lower prices.

Now if by 2015 they come up with range so I can look at electrics as a primary or 'only' vehicle at a price point that the average American can purchase. Like a Tesla for the common guy or gal looking for a car they can feel good about.







Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Part 3 of 4 - Financial

A New Hope!

Well Nissan has really surprised me - talk about aggressive pricing and keeping the onboard 110volt charger. These prices really change the 2013 for me.

Let's look at 2013 Leaf MSRP prices:

Leaf S    Model - 28,800
Leaf SV Model - 31,820
Leaf SL Model - 34,840


My 2012 SL Nissan was about 39k delivered, at full MSRP of 37250 - this was with 300 reduced MD sales/excise tax. A 2400 dollar deduction for top of the line. A better heater, faster charging, improved console - wow.

As I noted the S had some severe de-content but what a price drop! Basically a new Leaf with same great drive train coming in at about 30,300 delivered and 22,800 when you get the fed refund. Almost a quarter off for a very comfy electric ride for 5.  A delivered price of 22,800 really putting in contention with the Smart and putting Mini, Ford, even Volt on notice.  That's not far from the price that made me jump for the Think.
And now that we early adopters are out of the way, time for the negotiators to squeeze that bottom line even further down. 
I think this really turns around my negative look at the changes in part 2 - way more hope here.
Let's cross our fingers for Nissan to start giving early adopters a glimpse of what battery replacement is going to run with TN built batteries...
In the showrooms in March!








Thursday, January 10, 2013

2nd of 4 - Initial analysis

We won't be having 2013 Leaf pricing changes published for awhile.

Nissan needs to sell Leafs beyond the enthusiast market  Will 2013 model changes help?

So let's talk changes.  Weight reduction in the amounts listed can only provide a small range improvement unless I miss my guess. Really to ring bells the Nissan needs about 120 miles - that would provide a 100 mile range through most of its life as range declines. For someone like me the five year loan period for a car is where I need range to hold up - after that I can consider a new battery. I'd be surprised if the weight reduction ups the EPA 73 rating to 80.  The heater improvement is important for winter range but leaving it out of the 'S' means the most sensitive group to range - economy buyers, are left in the cold with lower range when using heat.

No active battery thermal protection change or battery chem changes leave the Leaf vulnerable to loss of range over time. Recently Nissan 'somewhat' guarantees 75 percent capacity in 5 years or 60,000 miles - I do appreciate this but it is less then the typical buyer needs.  So EPA 73 becomes EPA 65. Tough to sell over the Volt for a couple grand more. I love my Leaf but I expect year 5 to be downright tough. Like many middle class electric enthusiasts I have put all my spare funds into buying 10k above my usual high milage low emissions econobox pricing.

The charge improvement is big to a certain segment - 4 vs 7 hours is what is represented by 6.6 vs 3.6 kW charging. If you have an late night economy electric rate time for this is big. For many flat rate electric users such as I - seven hours of sleeping charges just as well either way. So again appeal but limited audience.

I don't like to sound again like a broken record but the 'B' mode for added regen is going to appeal to the enthusiast and hyper miler. However again we rat race commuters tend to forget our hyper mile skills - again the market beyond the enthusiast is unlikely to buy for this.

Finally the upscale options - leather, sound.  If you are looking for luxury appointments - why not a base Tesla 'S'? Or the gas option to eliminate range worries the Volt provides.

Do not misunderstand - each years improvements have helped. Lost cost leases under $200 especially. However we will have to hope for more improvement or very low prices to make this the breakthrough change. I'm sorry to say that because I love the Leaf and Nissan's leadership in reintroducing EV's for the common market. Tesla's for the rich are well and good but they are the only all electric that is close to a full 'real car' replacement. For the ordinary buyer - I still believe it may still not be enough to sell the Leaf.

Dave

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

2013 Leaf's - Part 1 of 4 - SPECS

So EV fans and friends (and the merely interested),

I love my Th!nk. I lust after the Tesla S.

Let's face it though - for most of you out there the main competitors are - the Leaf and the Volt. Maybe a third choice as the Ford Focus gets made in bigger numbers - still a question months after driving one. The Honda FIT - even more vaporwarish out there on lease terms for under 100 cars in 2012 - too bad.

Right now you want to go down to a dealer, test drive and buy or lease something like a compact to mid-size. Leaf or Volt is it.

So when Nissan announces a 2013 upgrade we'll pay attention and this is coming in four parts here.

1. Announced specs today.

2. My analysis of the new specs as a 2012 owner as well as a two EV owner.

3. MSRP and range - my thoughts - should be in less then two weeks.

4. Actual hands on analysis when the 2013's are available.

Some of this for a while is going to be a thought experiment as we pick through the three new models below in this NISSAN list of models standard and optional features.

Basically there will be three models - a extra stripped down econo version 'S', an 'SV' that looses a few more options, and the SL we know and love with a leather and sound option

I do have one early analysis note now - where dealers are selling 2012 LEAF's with firesale pricing, can you live with 7 hour charging, a less efficient heater, and no B (?) mode? If you can, the LED head lamps, full navigation system with CARWINGS, backup cam, solar 12v battery charger, built in fast charger,home link mirror, and other goodies are now only standard on the new SL so maybe the OLD SL is worth a look if you can drive a hard bargain? The new SV looks severely decontented too so the old 2012 SV basically loosing the CHADEMO - fast charge port, solar 12v tender, and backup cam? Well it's going to loose more - LED headlamps in particular? Again still could be worth a 2012 look.....







Now that's a mouth full - courtesy Nissan by way of the My Nissan Leaf website. More to come on these specs and the 2013 news in my next post.

Dave

Monday, January 7, 2013

A year - Two EVs and 15 thousand miles.

A year ago - 2011 - Dec 18, I took possession of my 2012 Leaf.

I had awaited over a year and a half for this moment. I received a full $7500 federal deduction a few months later.

I paid full retail. Yep hindsight is 20/20 and had I waited a cheap lease would have been possible. Still I'm glad for my decision.

I joined the EVA/DC club of electric vehicle supporters.

I showed my car at the January 2012 DC Auto show and talked to hundreds of car owners about the fun of an electric. Working the EVA/DC booth was fun - if a long day or two. Working and going to the show with me was my younger son Kevin - he developed a similar passion for the cars that may one day help us out of the climate crisis our planet faces.

I put over 13,000 miles in one year of the Leaf. Increased my daily commute from 27 to 52 miles a day and have had no issues even with other driving on top of that. I did have to upgrade my portable charger to 240volt charging for about $500 with heavy duty cables.

At it's one year battery evaluation, my Leaf was 100% no bars lost at the end of November 2012

In September 2012, I took possession of a second electric - a cute 2 seater Think City electric that my younger son Kevin will eventually own. Terrific car and basically the same size battery and range for $15,500 after my SECOND $7500 federal deduction. This car is less luxury then the Leaf, but do the math after the deduction. Was an MSRP of about $33000 down to $23000 with all tax tags costs etc.

Leaf 39,500 delivered - 7,500 = 32,000.  Range rated 73 EPA, mine up to 80 with mild to careful driving - 5 seats.

Think 23,000 delivered - 7,500 = 15,500. Range 75 - 82 again with mild to careful driving - 2 seats.

The Think City - about 2 miles more range then the Leaf.  Why the great price? Basically Think Europe is again in bankruptcy and Think City USA is funded to take care of the three year warranty with a skeleton staff that has been VERY responsive. When all new 2011 Think City's needed a heater replacement the small staff went to all the Think Citys in the US and got the job done.

In November 2012, I retired my ICE 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid.   I still own one third of a Toyota Yaris, I share with two others for long drives when needed.

So 2012 has been a great year for electric vehicles at my home.

Dave